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Doc. 8463
8 July 1999
Demographic trends and human potential in the countries of central and eastern Europe
Report
Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography
Rapporteur: Mr Ivan Chyzh, Ukraine, Group of the Unified European Left
Summary
The enormous political, economic and social changes which have taken place in central and eastern Europe since the end of the 1980s have had a significant demographic impact. Some of the demographic trends noted in these countries in the course of the last decade are a cause for deep concern: falling population in absolute figures, decline in life expectancy, drop in the fertility rate, higher mortality rate, ageing of the population, deterioration of the health situation. Such developments make it difficult for these countries to carry through the reforms which have been initiated. They are sometimes even the consequence of poorly conceived reforms which are harmful to the economy and society and whose result is socio-demographic decline. Nevertheless, the situation in the various countries of the region differs considerably.
The aim of this report is to analyse the current demographic situation in the countries of central and eastern Europe and identify the available political options for creating the conditions conducive to promoting the human potential of these countries. The report also calls upon the countries concerned and indeed all Council of Europe member states to step up European co-operation in the field of demography in an attempt to reverse current trends, and to draw up and support projects to solve the demographic problems in central and eastern Europe, given their impact on the whole of the continent.
I. Draft recommendation
1. The Parliamentary Assembly expresses its deep concern over the serious adverse demographic trends noted to varying degrees in the countries of central and eastern Europe over the last decade: decline in life expectancy, drop in the birth rate, rising mortality rate, ageing of the population and deterioration of the health situation.
2. The enormous social and economic changes which have occurred in these countries since the end of the 1980s have had a significant impact on these trends.
3. Nevertheless, the differing development of the countries of the region must be taken into account when assessing their demographic situation. Certain signs of stabilisation in the demographic process are to be observed in the states which intensively and efficiently implement economic, political and social reforms.
4. The Assembly stresses with anxiety that the present demographic trends impair these countries' ability to make a success of the reforms undertaken, since human resources are the foundation of development.
5. Since the violation of fundamental rights (to life, an adequate diet, housing, health, the protection of children, and state support for families) is the essential cause of the demographic crisis, especially in east European countries, the Assembly expresses its support for the drawing up, signing and implementation by member states of an additional protocol to the European Convention on Human Rights, on fundamental social rights. The Assembly considers that monitoring Council of Europe member states’ compliance with their commitments in the social field and their application of the Council of Europe’s norms guaranteeing living standards and the quality of life should become one of its priorities.
6. The Assembly recalls its earlier work, in particular Recommendation 1260 (1995) on the International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 5-13 September 1994): follow-up by the Council of Europe and its member states, in which it expressed its concern about the specific demographic problems of the countries of central and eastern Europe.
7. Given that the negative demographic trends appear to persist and to aggravate the problems in this part of the continent and in Europe as a whole, the Assembly recommends that the Committee of Ministers invite the member states concerned:
i. to continue economic, political and social reforms by devising flexible socio-economic policies taking into account the disturbing demographic trends in their countries;
ii. to increase the resources which they devote to improving public heath, working conditions and environmental quality;
iii. to promote better management of existing human resources;
iv. to encourage healthy lifestyles which would reduce the risks of certain illnesses, such as those affecting the cardio-vascular system;
v. to promote health education and sex education in schools and via the media;
vi. to improve the welfare benefits system, particularly for large families;
vii. to introduce a socially oriented approach to the ageing phenomenon;
viii. to ensure better use and development of intellectual capital through more effective motivation for training;
ix. to pursue appropriate employment and training policies;
x. to make social cohesion one of the aims of economic and social policies with the help of adequate budgetary resources.
8. The Assembly further recommends that the Committee of Ministers invite all Council of Europe member states:
i. to increase European co-operation in the field of demography, emphasising above all the exchange of experience and information, the formulation of social and economic policies, and support for research;
ii. to give full effect to the recommendations of the European Population Conference (Geneva, 1993) and of the International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 1994);
iii. to devise and support social projects aimed at solving the extremely disturbing demographic problems in the countries of central and eastern Europe, having regard to their impact on the continent as a whole.
II. Explanatory memorandum by Mr Chyzh
Contents Page
1. Introduction 5
2. Current demographic trends in central and eastern Europe 5
2.1. Population and population change 5
2.1.1. Population size 5
2.1.2. Population change 6
2.2. Family formation 6
2.2.1. Marriage and divorce 6
2.2.2. Fertility 7
2.2.3. Births outside marriage 7
2.3. Mortality 8
2.4. Ageing of the population 8
2.5. Net migration 9
3. Human potential — a key development factor 9
3.1. Human resources 10
3.2. Intellectual capital 10
3.3. Social cohesion 11
4. Activities of the Council of Europe in the demographic field 11
4.1. Activities of the Parliamentary Assembly 11
4.2. Activities in the framework of intergovernmental co-operation 13
5. Conclusions 14
Glossary 15
Bibliography 15
Appendices 16
1. Introduction
1. In terms of sustainable human development, demographic questions have a decisive role to play in decision-making in the field of social protection, economic development, health, education and regional planning. Population changes are in turn influenced by the demographic effects of political decisions.
2. The enormous political, social and economic changes which have taken place in central and eastern Europe since the end of the 1980s have had a significant demographic impact. The Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography, its Sub-Committee on Demography and the Rapporteur believe that special attention must be given to these demographic trends, some of which are a cause for deep concern. This will help evaluate the human potential that these countries can count upon in order to consolidate their development and carry through the many reforms which have been initiated.
3. The aim of this report is threefold:
a. to make an analysis of the current demographic situation in central and eastern Europe and its significance in practical terms for the individual and society as a whole;
b. to show what political options are open for creating conditions conducive to promoting the human potential of the countries of the region;
c. to assess the options for further strengthening pan-European co-operation in this field.
2. Current demographic trends in central and eastern Europe
4. There are significant differences in the demographic situation in the countries of central and eastern Europe, given the diversity of the economic, cultural and religious contexts. Nevertheless, there are a number of common threads.
5. The Council of Europe’s report on Recent Demographic Developments in Europe, 1998 and the 1997 report by the European Commission on the demographic situation in the European Union and the countries which have applied for membership, note that there are significant differences between the situation in the continent as a whole and the situation in the countries of central and eastern Europe. These differences concern virtually all the main demographic indicators (population — size and growth rate, net migration, marriage, divorce, fertility, mortality and foreign population).
2.1. Population and population change
2.1.1. Population size
6. The estimated population of the Council of Europe member states is 768 933 000 as at 1 January 1998. The population of the Russian Federation (147 million) is larger than that of any other member state, although because of its geographical area, its population density (9 inhabitants per km2) is the lowest in Europe after Iceland.
7. In central and eastern Europe, excluding Russia, Ukraine is the only country with over 50 million inhabitants. Poland comes next with a population of almost 39 million and then Romania with over 22 million. The Czech Republic and Hungary both have more than 10 million inhabitants. The country with the smallest population is Estonia — 1.5 million inhabitants as at 1 January 1998.
2.1.2 Population change
8. In the period 1988-98 the population of Europe grew except in the countries of central and eastern Europe where it fell. However, the situation is not the same in all the individual countries. The fall in the population was sharpest in Latvia (-0.87% in 1997), Ukraine (-0.80% according to 1997 figures), Bulgaria (-0.70%), Estonia (-0.57%), Hungary (-0.38%), Russia (-0.27%), Romania (-0.25%), followed by Moldova (-0.17%), the Czech Republic (-0.10%) and Lithuania (-0.09%). The only countries which avoided this trend were Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia, where there was a slight increase in the population (in 1997 of 0.06%, 0.08% and 0.16% respectively). Taken as a whole, the population in the countries of the region is decreasing on average by 0.3% per year (1 million inhabitants per year), whereas in the 70s and 80s it was growing by 0.6% per year (2 million inhabitants per year).
9. A few years ago, eastern Europe was the main contributor to population growth in Europe; now it is western Europe. According to United Nations estimates, the population of Russia could fall by 5 million by the year 2010, that of Ukraine by 1.5 million, and that of Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania by 0.5 million. Actual trends show the decline to be more serious than the UN forecasts, disturbing in themselves. In Ukraine, for example, the fall in the population in 1997 in absolute terms was 393 600 persons (311 500 representing the natural decrease due to the excess of deaths over births; 82 100 as a result of migration flows). Between 1990 and 1998 the population of Ukraine fell by almost 2 million. The Assembly has already expressed its concern regarding this state of affairs in Resolution 1180 (1999) on the economic situation in the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
10. The reasons for the negative growth rate in the region vary according to the particular country, but generally it is a reflection in population terms of the serious economic and social problems with which these countries have had to contend during the transition period. The fall in the population can be explained by the dramatic rise in mortality in the last decade, particularly among men, falling fertility rates and the migratory deficit.
11. The essential cause of the demographic crisis, which may have disastrous consequences, especially in east European countries, is the violation of the fundamental rights to life, an adequate diet, housing, health, the protection of children, and state support for families.
2.2. Family formation
2.2.1. Marriage and divorce
12. In central and eastern Europe the marriage rate (number of marriages per thousand inhabitants), traditionally very high, has fallen significantly over the last 15 years, and is now on a par with the rest of Europe. In 1997, the lowest marriage rates in Europe were in Estonia (3.8 marriages per thousand inhabitants), Slovenia (3.8) and Latvia (3.9). The average age at first marriage has risen, although it is still lower than in northern and western Europe.
13. One factor in the decline of marriage in the countries of the region is the radical change in values and behaviour. A further and perhaps more significant reason for the reduction in the number of marriages can be found in the social and economic challenges of transition — for example the state policy of allocating housing to married couples no longer applies; rents and property prices are high and this makes it more difficult for young couples to set up home.
14. While the divorce rate has risen in the majority of west and north European countries, this has not been the case in central and eastern Europe where there has been a fall in the number of divorces (with the exception of the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Ukraine). This is because of the economic difficulties in the countries of the region and changes in legislation and administrative practices: in certain cases, the decision not to divorce does not reflect consolidation of the family unit, but rather the difficulty of coping with the financial problems associated with divorce.
2.2.2. Fertility
15. As a result of the heavy demand for manpower in the planned economies in the wake of the second world war, for decades the countries of central and eastern Europe carried out a pronatalist policy. In addition, as modern contraception never developed very far in this region, abortion reached unique heights and gave the state a weapon with which to control the birth rate.
16. In all the countries in the region fertility is at present showing a general downward trend. This was already in evidence before 1989, but has since gathered momentum. According to the Council of Europe report on recent demographic developments — 1998, fertility in Europe as a whole has fallen below the level of population replacement (2.1 children per woman). However, the countries of central and eastern Europe had the lowest fertility rates of all for 1997: Bulgaria (1.09 children per woman), Latvia (1.11), Czech Republic (1.17), Estonia (1.24), Slovenia (1.25), Romania (1.32).
17. The dramatic fall in fertility in the 1990s might be seen as a postponement of desired births within families. Uncertainty as to jobs, income, social welfare (insufficient state aid which sometimes falls far short of the needs of families with children) and political stability encourages rational people to postpone or indeed decide against future births.
18. The low fertility rate is leading to changes in family structure: a reduction in the number of large families and a higher average age at childbirth, although this is still lower than in northern and western Europe.
2.2.3 Births outside marriage
19. Births outside marriage continue to rise in central and eastern Europe, as indeed everywhere in Europe. In the last decade, this indicator has risen spectacularly in four countries in the region, where it rivals the highest figures in western Europe: in Estonia, more than half of births are outside marriage (51.6%), one child in three in Latvia (34.8%), in Slovenia (31.6%) and in Bulgaria (30.1%). There are relatively few births outside marriage in Croatia (7.3%), "the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" (8.9%) and Poland (11%).
20. With the data available it is not possible to analyse the nature of this phenomenon in depth. While the recent increase in births outside marriage certainly provides an indirect indication of the extent of co-habitation and consensual unions in the countries of the region, it is debatable whether it really reflects a modernisation of relations between men and women, given that in Bulgaria, for example, one out of two children born outside marriage is born to a woman under 20 years of age.
2.3. Mortality
21. The changes in mortality are a key indicator of the upheavals in the countries of central and eastern Europe in recent years. The rates recorded (number of deaths per 1 000 inhabitants) are alarmingly high: they are much higher than in northern and western Europe and continue to rise in certain countries of the region (Ukraine, Russia, Romania, Bulgaria, "the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia").
22. In many central and east European countries, life expectancy at birth is significantly shorter than in other regions of Europe, especially as far as males are concerned. It is under 65 years in five countries (Estonia, Latvia, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine); only in three countries is it higher than 70 (Czech Republic, Slovenia and "the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia"). In Bulgaria, Romania, Russia and Ukraine, the situation is even more alarming: male life expectancy at birth has fallen below the 1980 figure.
23. The reasons for these unprecedented trends are not fully understood, but are probably related to the difficulties of the transition period, in particular to a high level of stress caused by uncertainty as to the future (a sort of logoneurosis), to loss of the means of existence, poverty and unemployment, and lack of resources for medical care, almost all of which has to be paid for even though this may be contrary to the Constitution (for example, Ukraine). The rise in mortality and the lowering of life expectancy result largely from an increase in ailments of the circulatory system due to a poorly balanced fatty diet, drinking and smoking, the increase in violent deaths (accidents and suicides), the low level of effectiveness of medical services and, in certain regions, severe environmental pollution.
24. Infant mortality in most central and east European countries has fallen in the last decade, except in Bulgaria, Latvia and Ukraine, where it rose between 1990 and 1997. However, infant mortality rates remain relatively high in all countries of the region, which is an indication of insufficiently effective health services.
2.4. Ageing of the population
25. In line with the general trend in Europe, the countries of central and eastern Europe are experiencing a gradual ageing of their population. People over the age of 65 account for 15.6% of the population in Bulgaria, 14% in Hungary, Estonia and Latvia, and over 13% in Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Ukraine. These values are comparable to those in other European countries.
26. The different levels of change in birth rates and mortality mean that countries will be confronted with ageing in different ways and in varying degrees, but in many respects the consequences will be the same in areas such as the job market, health services, social protection and relations between the generations.
27. As a result of the economic difficulties of the transition period, a large group of elderly people are gradually finding themselves in need of care and assistance. Consequently after an in-depth analysis, consideration should be given to possible reforms of the retirement and health insurance systems. Efforts should be focused on maintaining the income of the growing number of elderly people, and guaranteeing access to health care.
2.5. Net migration
28. The level of migration in Europe increased significantly at the beginning of the 1990s. However, the East-West wave of migration did not take place in the numbers anticipated, partly because the receiving countries set up effective controls. Nevertheless, for the last decade, net migration (balance between emigration and immigration) is negative overall in the majority of central and east European countries. It is one of the reasons for the fall in the population in the region.
29. Current migration movements appear to result primarily from political and ethnic factors, and the social instability of the countries of the region. Major migration movements are a result of armed conflicts, the breaking up of former large states and transit migration. All the same, since 1995 most migrations flows caused by political and economic transition appear to have decreased. The Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography is closely monitoring migration trends1.
3. Human potential — a key development factor
30. The human resources of a country are those which manage its development and enhance the other natural and cultural resources of its heritage. In view of current alarming demographic trends in the countries of central and eastern Europe, the question needs to be asked whether these countries are able to carry through the reforms undertaken.
31. An analysis of the demographic situation in the countries of central and eastern Europe clearly shows that if measures are not taken quickly to reverse current trends, the repercussions on the socio-economic development of the region will be considerable. Three areas need to be taken into consideration when policy choices are made regarding human potential: the state of human resources, how to turn each country's unique intellectual capital to account, and the question of social cohesion.
3.1. Human resources
32. When assessing human potential, account must be taken of both quantitative and qualitative aspects. The latter can be measured primarily by indicators of health and well-being since health is clearly the area where the effects of the socio-economic crisis are felt most directly. For the countries of central and eastern Europe, uncertainty as to the future, the deterioration of medical assistance, health care and the environment, and the emergence of stress factors associated with social and political instability have a major impact on population and general health levels.
33. Since 1989 there has been a very sharp rise in cardio-vascular illnesses in central and eastern Europe. Above and beyond the direct physiological causes, socio-economic conditions, living conditions and lifestyles also explain this worrying development. Infectious diseases are also on the increase.
34. It would be advisable for central and east European countries to review and reformulate their national health policies. Various measures could be envisaged by parliamentarians. Clearly the quality of medical care must figure among the priorities, but more importantly, attention must be given to preventing and eradicating risk factors linked to illnesses, improving health information and education structures, and reorganising the health system (budget and resources, staff management, resetting of priorities). In a broader context, socio-economic policies should be geared towards the well-being of the individual — work, standard of living, quality of life.
35. In the context of measures to make the most of human resources, the situation of women must be given special consideration. The two principal objectives of family policies must be to enable women to reconcile family and working life and to ensure that families are able to invest time and financial resources in the upbringing of their children.
36. The social, economic and political consequences of ageing of the population must also be taken into account when decisions are made in order to meet the economic and health care needs of the elderly and determine their role in society and the responsibility and relationship between the generations.
3.2. Intellectual capital
37. The harnessing of the human resources of the region and their transformation into intellectual capital are crucial to the success or failure of transition. Socio-economic trends in central and eastern Europe reveal the disparities between the potential available to them and the way they use it.
38. The intellectual capital of the central and east European countries is quite simply being squandered. On the one hand, these countries are losing a large number of highly qualified individuals who are driven to use their talents abroad. On the other, highly skilled people change their employment as they can no longer earn a decent living in their field. Lastly, rising unemployment brings with it a loss of skills and the marginalisation of a growing number of individuals.
39. Central and east European countries need to adopt new policies in order to solve the problem of the effective use of their intellectual capital. Ways must be found to motivate qualified people to work in their own country. As regards the problems caused by unemployment, the introduction of a training and employment policy presupposes strategic choices and budgetary decisions on the part of parliamentarians. It also necessitates a new partnership between the state, companies, the private sector and training organisations.
3.3. Social cohesion
40. The last factor that must be taken into account is social cohesion, which is essential if a country is to function smoothly. Economic pressures, insecurity, and the incidence of psychosocial ailments have led to an increase in various forms of violence. Migration trends represent an additional challenge because of the need to integrate different ethnic groups in an already vulnerable society. In October 1998 the Council of Europe, conscious of the extent of the problem, launched its new social cohesion strategy and set up a new European Committee for Social Cohesion (CDCS).
4. Activities of the Council of Europe in the demographic field
41. The Council of Europe has for a long time been concerned with demographic problems. It draws up and implements study and research programmes on topical demographic issues, including an analysis of the political aspects. These activities are carried out both at intergovernmental level and in the context of interparliamentary co-operation. In this way, the Council seeks to provide the governments and parliamentarians of member states with the tools to help them formulate their national policies in the social and economic field. This is currently of particular importance for the countries of central and eastern Europe.
42. The Council of Europe also co-operates with other organisations active in the field of demography (UN, OECD, EU) while maintaining its own specific approach. The Parliamentary Assembly is regularly represented at population conferences organised in the framework of international co-operation.
4.1. Activities of the Parliamentary Assembly
43. Given the extremely alarming demographic trends currently in evidence in the countries of central and eastern Europe, the Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography and its Sub-Committee on Demography have devoted their energies in recent years to studying these developments. For example, from 19 to 21 November 1995, the sub-committee organised a colloquy on “The demographic profile of the countries of central and eastern Europe: advantage or obstacle to development?”. This was held as part of the programme of interparliamentary co-operation with the countries of central and eastern Europe in order to raise parliamentarians’ awareness of the demographic situation in the region and to enable them to draw up national policies aimed at harnessing their countries' human potential more effectively. The rapporteur welcomes this and recommends that the Assembly continue to monitor the demographic situation in these countries.
44. On the basis of case studies (Latvia, Romania, Poland, Bulgaria, Czech Republic), the colloquy highlighted the demographic trends in the countries of central and eastern Europe and the role of human potential as a key development factor.
45. The discussions at the colloquy, which took account of the demographic legacy of the past and the diversity of situations in the individual countries, led to a number of alarming conclusions. The demographic trends noted are tantamount to a crisis situation. The sharp drop in the birth rate and the rise in the mortality rate in the countries of central and eastern Europe have led to population decline for the first time this century in peace time; the decline in the number of marriages and the growing number of extra-marital births raise questions about the stability of the social model; emigration patterns give rise to problems associated with the brain-drain and new ethnic diversity.
46. Three main aspects emerged from the discussions on human potential as a key development factor: falling life expectancy, lower fertility and negative net migration. These trends affect the countries of central and eastern Europe to varying degrees. They appear to reflect the considerable human cost of the economic and political transition in the countries of the region.
47. At its meeting in Uzhgorod from 3 to 5 October 1997, the Sub-Committee on Demography looked at a number of case-studies on the demographic situation, human potential and migration problems in Ukraine and its Transcarpathian region (Zakarpatia). It was stressed that economic problems in Ukraine had serious repercussions in the social field and, consequently, a negative effect on demographic trends, characterised by depopulation, higher mortality, a lower birth rate and a crisis situation for traditional family structures.
48. The consequences of the Chernobyl disaster, which are likely to be felt for many generations, have exacerbated these unfavourable trends. Although there is a legislative framework for action in this field, there are not enough financial resources to carry such action through. The Council of Europe is making a considerable effort to alert European states to the need to help deal with the consequences of Chernobyl.
49. The crisis is likely to become a demographic catastrophe if effective measures are not taken as a matter of urgency. Greater emphasis should be placed on education about demographic issues to bring it home to citizens that their health is their most precious asset. Some thought should be given to possible assistance from non-European countries and a contribution from the Council of Europe’s Social Development Fund.
50. At its meeting in Paris on 18 December 1997, the Sub-Committee on Demography held an exchange of views with specialists from the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) who presented the results of their research on recent demographic changes in central and eastern Europe and the health crisis in the former Soviet Union. The members of the Sub-Committee concluded that the experts from outside the region concurred with the analysis and concerns of their colleagues inside the region with regard to the negative democratic trends currently being observed.
51. Furthermore, members of the Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography attended, as observers, the International Conference on Population and Development, held in Cairo from 5 to 13 September 1994. The conference adopted a programme of action designed to ensure the implementation of effective population and development policies for the coming 20 years. It was regrettable, however, that Europe’s demographic problems were barely discussed.
52. In the report on the conference and the follow-up by the Council of Europe and its member states2 and the Recommendation adopted3, the Assembly drew particular attention to the “extremely worrying” situation4 and specific problems of the central and east European countries. The Assembly recommended that the Committee of Ministers invite the European Union to grant aid to the central and east European countries to help solve their demographic problems, and invite member states to ensure that a proportion of the aid allocated to the implementation of the Cairo programme of action went towards solving these problems5.
4.2. Council of Europe activities in the framework of intergovernmental co-operation
53. The European Population Committee (CDPO), set up by the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe, is responsible for analysing demographic trends in Europe, organising population conferences, carrying out comparative studies and informing governments and the public of their findings. The subjects currently being studied are of particular importance for analysing and understanding the demographic processes at work in central and eastern Europe and include case studies on countries in the region, such as:
– the demographic situation of national minorities in Europe;
– regional population dynamics;
– mortality trends and differential mortality;
– fertility and new types of households and family formation;
– demographic trends and the labour market.
54. In co-operation with governments and national demographic institutes, the Council of Europe publishes an annual report on “Recent democratic developments in Europe” containing statistics on changes in European populations, including those of central and eastern Europe. These reports are an extremely valuable tool for analysis. In addition, the results of work carried out are often published in the “Population Studies” series (Council of Europe Publishing).
55. In the coming three years, particular attention will be paid to studying the demographic consequences of economic transition in central and eastern Europe. To this end, the Committee of Ministers is planning to set up a group of specialists. There are also plans to set up groups of specialists on the demographic characteristics of immigrant populations, and on the demographic implications of social exclusion and poverty.
56. The governments of central and east European countries participate in international co-operation in the field of demography and have stated their own analysis of the problems and their priorities for action. They are fully aware of the seriousness of current developments. None the less, the lack of financial resources is very often cited as the reason for their inability to respond appropriately. The rapporteur believes that European co-operation could help to intensify exchanges of experience and information and step up demographic research, and provide further encouragement for the framing of socio-economic policies.
5. Conclusions
57. In recent years, in virtually every area of demographic study, the countries of central and eastern Europe have undergone rapid, unprecedented changes, many of an adverse nature. Some of these, such as the falling number of marriages, lower fertility and the growing number of births outside marriage, are shared with most other countries in Europe. Others are unique to the region and are particularly worrying: lower life expectancy, higher mortality.
58. The socio-economic changes affecting the countries of central and eastern Europe since the late 1980s have a major impact on these trends. To be able to make informed decisions, leaders must have reliable and up-to-date data. The following are some of the possible policy choices available:
– greater investment in human capital (particularly health and training);
– guaranteeing respect for individual diversity and encouraging social creativity;
– drawing up socio-economic policies which are as flexible as possible so as to take account of the many varying individual situations;
– drafting legislation designed to offer individuals material, social and political security and putting in place the conditions to enable them to optimise their potential for creativity and productivity in the interests of society.
59. Demographic problems provide a backdrop against which the most striking effects of the policies pursued by public authorities stand out. There is an urgent need for new social policies to deal with the worrying demographic changes in central and eastern Europe. Support from European partners is vital given that these are developments which could destabilise whole continents.
GLOSSARY
Natural increase: the surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths within a population in a given time period.
Human resources: the quantity of human capacity available for the production of goods and services.
Human capital: the skills and capabilities embodied in an individual or a work force, in part acquired through improved health and nutrition, education and training.
Life expectancy at birth: the mean length of life of individuals who are subject since birth to current mortality trends.
Infant mortality rate: number of deaths of children under one year of age per one thousand live births in the same year
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Recent demographic developments in Europe, 1998; Council of Europe Publishing,
ISBN 92-871-3726-9
Activities of the Council of Europe in the Population Field, CDPO (96) ACT rev.
Reporting Committee: Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography.
Committee for opinion: Social, Health and Family Affairs Committee.
Budgetary implications for the Assembly: none.
Reference to committee: Doc. 7498 and Reference No 2157 of 27 January 1997.
Draft recommendation unanimously adopted by the committee on 24 June 1999.
Members of the committee : Mr Díaz de Mera (Chairman), Mr Iwiński, (Vice-Chairman), Mrs Aguiar, MM. Akselsen, Amoruso, Mrs Arnold (Alternate: Mr Soendergaard), MM. Atkinson (Alternate: Hancock), Aushev, Beaufays, Mrs Björnemalm, MM. Bogomolov, Bösch, Brancati, Branger (Alternate: Schreiner), Mrs Brasseur, Mrs Bušić, MM. Chiliman, Christodoulides, Chyzh, Cilevics, Clerfayt, Connor, Debarge (Alternate: Evin), Mrs Dumont, Mr Einarsson, Mrs Fehr, MM. Filimonov, Ghiletchi, Gyürk, Ivanov, Jakic, Lord Judd, Mrs Karlsson, MM. Koulouris, Kozlowski, Laakso, Lauricella, Liapis (Alternate: Mrs Katseli), Luís, Mrs Markovska, MM. Mateju, Melo (Alternate: Begaj), Minkov, Mularoni, Mutman, Ouzky, Pullicino Orlando, Rakhansky (Alternate: Strizhko), Mrs Rastauskiené, Mrs Roth, Mrs Sarishvili-Chanturia, MM. von Schmude, Sincai, Tabajdi, Tahir, Telek, Mrs Terpstra (Alternate: Mr Jurgens), MM. Thönnes (Alternate: Mrs Lörcher), Tkác, Mrs Vermot-Mangold, Mr Wray, Mrs Zwerver, N….. (Alternate: Mrs Guirado, Vice-Chair).
N.B. The names of those members present at the meeting are printed in italics.
Secretaries of the committee: Mr Newman, Mrs Nachilo, Mr Adelsbach.
1 Cf. Activities of the Council of Europe in the migration field, CDMG (98) 2; “Migration in central and eastern Europe: new challenges”, Proceedings of the colloquy organised by the Commission on Migration, Refugees and Demography, Warsaw, 17-19 December 1998.
2 See Doc. 7028, report by the Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography. Rapporteur: Mrs Robert.
3 Recommendation 1260 (1995).
4 Doc. 7028 § 70.
5 Rec. 1260 (1995), §§ 10.vii, 11.iii.