Report | Doc. 12002 | 11 September 2009
The challenges posed by climate change
(Former) Committee on the Environment, Agriculture and Local and Regional Affairs
Summary
The Council of Europe is concerned about the consequences of global climate change and the urgent need to secure a successful agreement at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009. While there is a clear recognition that global action is vital, there is little political consensus on how to share the burden to achieve the necessary 50-85% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and even less consensus on how to set mid-term economy-wide quantitative targets for 2020.
Renegotiating the global agreement represents a challenge to reach a fair balance between the interests of the rich industrialised countries that carry the overwhelming responsibility for the past greenhouse gas emissions, the interests of the developing countries with fast growing economies and populations, and the interests of the world’s poorest countries that are most affected by climate change.
The Parliamentary Assembly therefore calls for an ambitious binding global agreement with a clear vision for a future low carbon world – based on more social and environmental equity – to be firmly set at the next meeting of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-15) in Copenhagen and recommends that Council of Europe member states and observer states negotiate an integrated package of measures.
The Assembly also recommends that the Council of Europe adopt climate change as one of its core priorities, explore the linkages between climate change and human rights in Europe and consider drafting a new Protocol to the European Convention on Human Rights enshrining the right to a healthy and viable environment as a human right.
A. Draft resolution
(open)B. Draft recommendation
(open)C. Explanatory memorandum by Mr John Prescott, Rapporteur
(open)1. Introduction
2. Towards post-Kyoto commitments for climate change mitigation
2.1. Kyoto commitments
2.2. Kyoto implementation experience
2.3. The Bali Action Plan for the Post-Kyoto commitment period
2.4. Progress from Bali to Poznan and beyond
- Scale of emission reductions to be achieved by Annex I parties
- Duration of commitment period(s)
- Formulation of emission limitation and reduction objectives, including their base year;
- Factors behind and indicators of mitigation potential of Annex I parties;
- Improvements to emissions trading and project-based mechanisms;
- The treatment of LULUCF in the second commitment period;
- The coverage of GHGs, sectors and source categories;
- Common metrics to calculate the CO2 equivalence of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks;
- Approaches targeting sectoral emissions;
- How approaches to reduce emissions of GHGs from aviation and marine bunker fuels could be used by Annex I parties as a means to reach their emission reduction targets.
3. Recent developments in negotiation stances
3.1. The European Union
3.2. The United States
3.3. China
3.4. Australia
- an unconditional commitment to reduce GHG emissions 5% below the 2000 level by 2020 (projected to be a 27% reduction in per capita terms);
- a commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 15% below the 2000 levels by 2020 (projected to be a 34% reduction in per capita terms) in the context of global agreement under which all major economies commit to substantially restrain emissions and advanced economies take on reductions comparable to Australia.
4. Conclusions
- The scale of collectively agreed GHG emission reductions by 2020 and 2050. Ambitious targets are obviously needed to mitigate climate change. If international emissions trading will be a key policy instrument for the next commitment period, the level of agreed GHG emission reductions will influence the potential benefit of large developing countries from the agreement – more ambitious targets will translate to more CDM projects and larger export volumes for green energy investments. Thus, ambitious commitments may increase the willingness or large developing countries to accept a mitigation role or commitments for themselves.
- Burden sharing of mitigation. Developed countries will need to adopt the main burden of mitigating climate change and agree on burden sharing amongst them. The stronger the agreement on GHG emission cuts, the more likely it is that some of the developing countries will agree on sharing the burden of mitigation. How the responsibilities of developing countries will be formulated will be one of the most contentious issues for negotiations that relates to social justice. For example, will the commitments of developing countries imply per capita entitlements to GHG emissions comparable to those enjoyed by developed countries now or after their emission cuts? Convergence with current global per capita emissions of about 4.5 tons of carbon would allow growth of CO2 emissions only for developing countries, and imply 50-65% emission reductions in Europe and North America. But that would not be enough – maintaining the global warming within 2° C, the global per capita CO2 emissions should be cut to about 2 tons. Convergence with this figure would imply greater emission reductions to developed countries and significant emission reductions to most developing countries, too, except the LDCs.
- Comprehensiveness and instrument choice. Deep cuts in GHG emissions demand broad coverage of GHG sources and moving to bunker fuels, international aviation, land use and land use change. However, these new issues will demand new management strategies that will be difficult to agree on. Instrument choices will be important across issues, for example choices over explicit targets and trading vs. regulatory, tax or softer approaches.
- The length of agreed-upon commitment periods. Shorter periods may be politically easier to agree on but they do not create a basis for credible longer-term expectations. These would in turn be needed to stimulate technological change and investment in decarbonisation of economies, as well as to make carbon trading systems work appropriately.
- Agreement on adaptation to climate change is likely to be a key issue for an agreement on mitigation as well. All developing countries are going to be in the receiving end of climate change impacts and they, particularly the least developed countries, are both vulnerable to climate change impacts and have limited capacity to adapt. They are likely to tie their participation in mitigation efforts and indeed possibly their agreement to any mitigation proposals to an agreement on governance and financing of adaptation. This is already highlighted by China’s new position paper on negotiations in Copenhagen.
(open)
References
Australian Government. 2008. Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme: Australia’s Low Pollution Future. White Paper, Vols. 1&2. Available online at <http://www.climatechange.gov.au/whitepaper/report/index.html>.
Commission of the European Communities (CEC). 2009. Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen: Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. Brussels, Belgium.
International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2007.
Pacala, S. and Socolow, R. 2004. Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies. Science 305: 968-972.
Mastrandrea, M.D., Schneider, S.H., 2004. Probabilistic integrated assessment of dangerous climate change. Science 304: 571–575.
National Development and Reform Commission (NRDC) of the Republic of China. 2009. China’s Position on the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference. Available online at :
<http://en.ndrc.gov.cn/newsrelease/t20090521_280382.htm>.
People’s Republic of China. 2008. China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change. Beijing: Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China.
Stern, N., 2007, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Stern, T. and Antholis, W. 2008. A Changing Climate: The Road Ahead for the United States. Washington Quarterly 31: 175-188.
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). 2007. Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World. Basingstoke, UK and New York, US: Palgrave Macmillan
Weber, C.L., Peters, G.P., Guan, D. and Hubacek, K. (2008) The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change. Energy Policy, 36(9): 3572-3577.
List of relevant texts adopted by the Parliamentary Assembly:
Recommendation 1879 (2009): Environment and renewable energies
Resolution 1679 (2009): Nuclear energy and sustainable development
Resolution 1667 (2009): Growing food or fuel?
Resolution 1655(2009): Environmentally induced migration and displacement: a 21st century challenge
Recommendation 1823 (2008): Global warming and ecological disasters
Recommendation 1837 (2008): The fight against harm to the environment in the Black Sea
Resolution 1596 (2008): Protection of the environment in the Arctic Region
Resolution 1588 (2007): Radioactive waste and protection of the environment
Resolution 1552 (2007): Capture of carbon dioxide as a means of fighting climate change
Recommendation 1786 (2007): Towards responsible food consumption
Resolution 1531 (2007): Peril of using energy supply as an instrument of political pressure
Recommendation 1752 (2007): Conservation and use of the landscape potential of Europe
Resolution 1488 (2006): Regrouping land in central and eastern Europe
Recommendation 1731 (2006): Europe’s contribution to improving water management
Resolution 1461 (2005): The Curonian Spit, oil and the environment
Resolution 1449 (2005): The environment and the Millennium Development Goals
Resolution 1406 (2004): Global warming: beyond Kyoto
Recommendation 1653 (2004): Environmental accounting as a sustainable development tool
Resolution 1317 (2003): Marine pollution
Resolution 1318 (2003): Globalisation and sustainable development
Resolution 1243 (2001): Kyoto Protocol on climate change: need for committed international solidarity
List of relevant reports currently prepared in the Committee on the Environment, Agriculture and Local and Regional Affairs (or recently published):
Drafting an additional Protocol to the Convention on Human Rights, concerning the right to a healthy environment (Mr Mendes Bota, Portugal, EPP/CD)
Biodiversity and climate change (Rapporteur, Mrs Cortajarena Iturrioz, Spain, ALDE)
Forests: the future of our planet (Rapporteur: Mr Timchenko, Russia, EDG)
For a new ocean governance (Rapporteur: Mrs Melo, Portugal, SOC)
The fight against harm to the environment in the Mediterranean (Rapporteur: Mr Falzon, Malta, EPP/CD)
List of relevant reports adopted by the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe:
Resolution 262 (2008): Public, local and regional action: for a new energy culture
Resolution 247 and Recommendation 230 (2008): Local and regional authorities committed to sustainable consumption
Resolution 248 and Recommendation 231 (2008): Climate change: building adaptive capacity of local and regional authorities
List of relevant reports adopted by the Standing Committee of the Convention on the Conservation of European Wildlife and Natural Habitats (Bern Convention):
Recommendation No. 135 (2008) on addressing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity
List of Acronyms
AWG-KP |
Ad-hoc working group for further commitments under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |
AWG-LCA |
Ad hoc working group on long-term cooperation under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |
BAP |
Bali Action Plan |
BRIC |
BRIC countries include Brazil, India and China |
CCS |
Carbon capture and storage, a technology to separate CO2 from combustion exhausts and to store it geologically. |
CDM |
Clean Development Mechanism is one of the flexibility mechanisms established by the Kyoto Protocol. It enables Annex I countries to meet part of their greenhouse gas reduction commitments by projects implemented in non-Annex I (developing) countries. |
COP |
Conference of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (or other international environmental conventions) |
EIT |
Former socialist countries with economies in transition |
ETS |
Emissions trading system |
EU ETS |
European Union’s emission trading system |
FAR |
Fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) |
FSU |
Former Soviet Union countries |
G-77 |
A group composed of and representing developing countries |
GHG |
Greenhouse gas |
GDP |
Gross domestic product |
IPCC |
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a body designated to assess latest scientific research on climate change |
JI |
Joint Implementation involves Annex I country meeting its greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments by a project implemented in another Annex I country |
KP |
Kyoto Protocol, the first amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed in Kyoto in 1997. It established the first commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions |
LDC |
Least Developed Country |
LULUCF |
Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry related activities |
OECD |
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development |
OPEC |
Oil producing countries’ group |
TAR |
Third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) |
UNFCCC |
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |
Appendix 2 – Greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction targets and change of total emissions
(open)(excluding LULUCF) in the European Union in 1990-2007
Country |
Kyoto target |
1990 |
Changes 1990-2007 |
% |
Million tonnes |
% |
|
Austria |
-13.0 |
79.0 |
11.3 |
Belgium |
-7.5 |
143.2 |
-8.3 |
Denmark |
-21.0 |
69.1 |
-3.5 |
Finland |
0.0 |
70.9 |
10.6 |
France |
0.0 |
562.6 |
-5.6 |
Germany |
-21.0 |
1 215.2 |
-21.3 |
Greece |
-25.0 |
105.6 |
24.9 |
Ireland |
-13.0 |
55.4 |
25.0 |
Italy |
-6.5 |
516.3 |
7.1 |
Luxembourg |
-28.0 |
13.1 |
-1.6 |
Netherlands |
-6.0 |
212.0 |
-2.1 |
Portugal |
-27.0 |
59.3 |
38.1 |
Spain |
-15.0 |
288.1 |
53.5 |
Sweden |
-4.0 |
71.9 |
-9.1 |
United Kingdom |
-12.5 |
771.1 |
-17.4 |
EU-15 |
-8.0 |
4 323.9 |
-4.3 |
Bulgaria |
-8.0 |
117.7 |
-35.8 |
Cyprus |
Not applicable |
5.5 |
85.3 |
Czech Republic |
-8.0 |
194.7 |
-22.5 |
Estonia |
-8.0 |
41.9 |
-47.5 |
Hungary |
-6.0 |
99.2 |
-23.5 |
Latvia |
-8.0 |
26.7 |
-54.7 |
Lithuania |
-8.0 |
49.1 |
-49.6 |
Malta |
Not applicable |
2.0 |
45.7 |
Poland |
-6.0 |
459.5 |
-13.2 |
Romania |
-8.0 |
243.0 |
-37.3 |
Slovakia |
-8.0 |
73.3 |
-35.9 |
Slovenia |
-8.0 |
18.6 |
11.6 |
EU-27 |
-7.6 |
5 564.0 |
-9.3 |
Source: European Environmental Agency, climate change data viewer
Appendix 3 – Carbon dioxide emissions
(open)
Carbon dioxide emissions of Annex 1 countries and other major emitters in 2004 |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Country (2004) |
Mt CO2 |
Pop. Million |
CO2/capita |
Emission% |
Population% |
Australia |
326.6 |
20.2 |
16.2 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
Austria |
69.8 |
8.1 |
8.6 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
Belarus |
64.9 |
9.8 |
6.6 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
Belgium |
100.7 |
10.4 |
9.7 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
Bulgaria |
42.5 |
7.7 |
5.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Canada |
639 |
32.0 |
20 |
2.2 |
0.5 |
Croatia |
23.5 |
4.4 |
5.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Czech Republic |
116.9 |
10.3 |
11.4 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
Denmark |
52.9 |
5.4 |
9.8 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
Estonia |
18.9 |
1.4 |
14 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
Finland |
65.8 |
5.2 |
12.6 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
France |
373.5 |
62.3 |
6 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
Germany |
808.3 |
82.5 |
9.8 |
2.8 |
1.3 |
Greece |
96.6 |
11.0 |
8.8 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
Hungary |
57.1 |
10.2 |
5.6 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
Iceland |
2.2 |
0.3 |
7.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Ireland |
42.3 |
4.0 |
10.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Italy |
449.7 |
57.7 |
7.8 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
Japan |
1257.2 |
127.0 |
9.9 |
4.3 |
2.0 |
Latvia |
7.1 |
2.4 |
3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Lithuania |
13.3 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
Luxemburg |
11.3 |
0.5 |
25 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Netherlands |
142 |
16.3 |
8.7 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
New Zealand |
31.6 |
4.1 |
7.7 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Norway |
87.5 |
4.6 |
19.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
Poland |
307.1 |
38.4 |
8 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
Portugal |
58.9 |
10.5 |
5.6 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
Romania |
90.4 |
21.5 |
4.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
Russian Federation |
1524.1 |
143.8 |
10.6 |
5.3 |
2.2 |
Slovakia |
36.3 |
5.4 |
6.7 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Slovenia |
16.2 |
2.0 |
8.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
Spain |
330.3 |
43.5 |
7.6 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
Sweden |
53 |
9.0 |
5.9 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
Switzerland |
40.4 |
7.5 |
5.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Turkey |
226 |
70.6 |
3.2 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
Ukraine |
329.8 |
47.1 |
7 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
United Kingdom |
586.9 |
59.9 |
9.8 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
United States |
6045.8 |
293.5 |
20.6 |
20.9 |
4.6 |
Annex 1 Total |
14546.4 |
1253.7 |
11.6 |
50.2 |
19.5 |
Brazil |
331.6 |
184.2 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
2.9 |
China |
5007.1 |
1317.7 |
3.8 |
17.3 |
20.5 |
India |
1342.1 |
1118.4 |
1.2 |
4.6 |
17.4 |
Indonesia |
378 |
222.4 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
3.5 |
Mexico |
437.8 |
104.2 |
4.2 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
South Africa |
436.8 |
44.6 |
9.8 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
Other major emitters |
7933.4 |
2991.5 |
2.7 |
27.4 |
46.5 |
Source: Human Development Report 2007/2008
Appendix 4 – Status of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in different countries
(open)1. List of the countries which have signed and ratified, with targets
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, EU-15 countries, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, Ukraine, United Kingdom
2. List of the countries which have signed and ratified, with no targets
Antigua, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, China, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Fiji, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Marshall Islands, Mexico, Micronesia, Nicaragua, Niger, Niue, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent & Grenadines, Samoa, Seychelles, Solomon Islands, Thailand, Trinidad & Tobago, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zambia,
3. List of the countries which have signed but not ratified
Kazakhstan
United States of America
* * *
Reporting committee: Committee on the Environment, Agriculture and Local and Regional Affairs
Reference to committee:Doc. 11581, Reference No. 3447 of 29 May 2008
Draft resolution and draft recommendation adopted unanimously by the committee on 4 September 2009
Members of the Committee: Mr Alan Meale (Chairman), Mrs Maria Manuela de Melo (1st Vice-Chairperson), Mr Juha Korkeaoja (2nd Vice-Chairman), Mr Cezar Florin Preda (3rd Vice-Chairman), Mr Remigijus Ačas, Mr Ruhi Açikgöz, Mr Artsruni Aghajanyan, Mr Miloš Aligrudić, Mr Alejandro Alonso Nùñez (alternate: Mr Gabino Puche Rodriguez Acosta), Mr Gerolf Annemans, Mr Miguel Arias Cañete, Mr Alexander Babakov, Mr Ivan Brajović, Mrs Elvira Cortajarena Iturrioz, Mr Veleriu Cosarciuc, Mr Vladimiro Crisafulli, Mr Taulant Dedja, Mr Hubert Deittert, Mr Karl Donabauer, Mr Miljenko Dorić, Mr Gianpaolo Dozzo, Mr Tomasz Dudziński, Mr József Ékes, Mr Savo Erić, Mr Bill Etherington, Mr Nigel Evans, Mr Joseph Falzon, Mr Relu Fenechiu, Mr Zahari Georgiev, Mr Peter Götz, Mr Rafael Huseynov, Mr Jean Huss, Mr Fazail Ibrahimli, Mr Ivan Ivanov, Mr Igor Ivanovski, Mr Bjørn Jacobsen, Mrs Danuta Jazłowiecka, Mr Birkir Jon Jonsson, Mr Stanisław Kalemba, Mr Guiorgui Kandelaki, Mr Haluk Koç, Mr Bojan Kostres, Mr Pavol Kubovic, Mr Paul Lempens, Mr Anastosios Liaskos, Mr François Loncle, Mr Aleksei Lotman, Mrs Kerstin Lundgren (alternate: Mr Kent Olsson), Mr Theo Maissen, Mrs Christine Marin, Mr Yevhen Marmazov, Mr Bernard Marquet, Mr José Mendes Bota, Mr Peter Mitterrer, Mr Pier Marino Mularoni, Mr Adrian Năstase, Mr Pasquale Nessa, Mr Tomislav Nikolić, Mrs Carina Ohlsson, Mr Joe O’Reilly, Mr Germinal Peiro (alternate: Mr Alain Cousin), Mr Ivan Popescu, Mr René Rouquet, Mrs Anta Rugāte, Mr Giacento Russo, Mr Fidias Sarikas, Mr Leander Schädler, Mr Herman Scheer, Mr Mykola Shershun, Mr Hans Kristian Skibby, Mr Ladislav Skopal, Mr Rainder Steenblock, Mr Valerij Sudarenkov, Mr Laszlo Szakacs, Mr Vyacheslav Timchenko, Mr Bruno Tobback (alternate: Mr Daniel Ducarme), Mr Dragan Todorovic, Mr Nikolay Tulaev, Mr Tomas Ulehla, Mr Mustafa Ünal, Mr Peter Verlič, Mr Rudolf Vis, Mr Harm Evert Waalkens, Mr Hansjörg Walter, Mrs Roudoula Zissi
N.B.: The names of those members present at the meeting are printed in bold
Secretariat to the Committee: Mrs Agnès Nollinger, Mr Bogdan Torcătoriu and Mrs Dana Karanjac