1. Procedural background
1. The present report has been
prepared on the basis of a request for an urgent debate presented
by the five political groups under Rule 51.
2. Following the decision of the Parliamentary Assembly to include
the debate in its agenda and to transmit the request to the Committee
on Political Affairs and Democracy, I was appointed rapporteur on 27 September 2021.
3. On that day, the committee organised a hearing on “The situation
in Afghanistan: consequences for Europe and the region”, with the
participation of high-level speakers:
- Mette Knudsen, Deputy Special Representative of the United
Nations Secretary General for Afghanistan, United Nations Assistance
Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA),
- Ambassador Zamir Kabulov, Presidential Envoy to Afghanistan,
Russian Federation,
- Laurel Miller, Programme Director for Asia, International
Crisis Group.
4. Thanks to the contribution of the Committee on Migration,
Refugees and Displaced Persons, Alexander Mundt, Senior Policy Advisor
Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR),
also participated in the hearing.
5. The invaluable expert insight of the speakers contributed
to providing information for the report and shaping some of the
considerations that are contained therein, and I thank them.
6. Given its urgent nature, the report cannot be as exhaustive
and detailed as the gravity and complexity of the situation would
require. On the other hand, it is an umbrella report which aims
at broaching, in general terms, the main issues which should be
at the heart of the concerns of Council of Europe member States.
When discussing the possible follow-up to be given, the Bureau of
the Assembly may want to consider additional work to be carried
under an ordinary procedure, which would make it possible to elaborate
a more in-depth analysis and recommendations.
2. Introduction
7. Afghanistan is geographically
far from Europe but what is happening in this land-locked central
Asian country is having and will have repercussions on our continent
and beyond.
8. At the end of August 2021, the United States and a coalition
of its allies – most of whom NATO members and partners – completed
the withdrawal of their troops from Afghanistan. By the beginning
of September, the Taliban had announced the formation of an interim
government, proclaimed the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan”, and
extended their control to the whole country.
9. Since April 2021, when President Joe Biden confirmed the final
date of the drawdown, the advance of the Taliban seemed unstoppable,
with towns and villages falling one after the other into their hands,
sometimes without fighting.
When the Taliban entered Kabul
on 15 August, the world was witness to the hasty evacuation of foreigners
and Afghan citizens who had been working for foreign countries.
The images of the crowds at Kabul airport and people clinging on
the outside of planes while they were taking off testified to the
fear and despair of the population. To add to the general climate
of chaos and confusion, on 26 August a suicide bomb attack by the
Islamic State Khorosan Province (ISIS-K) deliberately targeted civilians
and personnel assisting in the evacuation operations, claiming the
lives of more than 200 people, including 13 US Marines.
10. The departure of American forces and their allies from Afghanistan,
the way in which it took place, and the Taliban takeover are events
of great political significance. At the moment they are the subject
of scrutiny in many countries that were part of the foreign military
presence. Parliaments are questioning their governments on their
failure to foretell the rapidity of the Taliban advance, on the
effectiveness of the advice, training and capacity-building provided
to the Afghan military and civilian structures in the past 20 years,
and on the management of the evacuation operations and the extent
of multilateral co-ordination. Veterans who served in Afghanistan
and the families of those who lost their lives are asking why the
Afghan allies were abandoned to themselves and why the sacrifice
of their loved ones was wasted. Many underline the failure of attempts
to export democracy and engage in State-building. In some countries,
criticism has led to the resignation of ministers and cabinet reshufflings.
11. While assessing what happened is certainly crucial to identify
responsibilities and draw lessons for the future, it is also important
to gauge the middle and long-term implications of these events.
The Taliban’s rise to power is already having dire consequences
for Afghans, who face a disastrous economic and humanitarian situation
and see their rights – including human rights – curtailed and violated.
12. Furthermore, the American departure and the miscalculations
and failed risk-assessment that surrounded it are a major blow to
the image and the credibility of the United States. From a geopolitical
point of view, they represent a momentous power shift at global
level, leaving a void in a highly valuable strategic region which
will be filled by others. The Taliban takeover may also have wide-ranging
effects as regards migration movements, narcotics production and
trafficking, smuggling of weapons and money-laundering, and may
lead to a recrudescence of terrorism and violent extremism.
13. A phase of uncertainty is now beginning, in which governments
are faced with the moral dilemma of whether and how to engage with
the Taliban, as they are the unavoidable channel to reach out to
the population and address a wide range of challenges afflicting
the country, some of which may spill over. It also remains an open
question whether the international community will be able to find
a common approach to the Taliban.
3. The
Taliban’s return to power
14. It may have seemed a dazzling
victory but the Taliban’s return to power is the result of a complex
process which built up since 2001, when they were toppled because
of their refusal to surrender Osama Bin Laden to the United States.
15. That year, the Bonn Agreement
brought
together, under the auspices of the United Nations, 25 prominent
Afghan leaders who had fought against the Taliban. It laid down
the foundation for State-building efforts in Afghanistan, providing
a framework for the Constitution that was established in 2004 and
the presidential and parliamentary elections that followed.
16. By emphasising the need for strong, centralised government
institutions, the Agreement failed to take into account Afghanistan’s
cultural, religious, ethnic and political specificities. With hindsight,
many observers agree that the State-building roadmap which was set
out in the Bonn Agreement was an inappropriate model for Afghanistan
due to the country’s political and ethnic fragmentation.
This mistake subsequently contributed to
aggravating rather than addressing a range of problems, including
corruption, incompetency, and poor governance.
17. After being ousted from power, the Taliban continued a guerrilla
fight against foreign and Afghan troops from their strongholds in
mountainous and rural areas, making widespread use of indiscriminate
or targeted killings of civilians and other means of intimidation
of the population.
18. Exploiting the weaknesses and internal rivalries of the Afghan
institutional apparatus, especially at local level, the Taliban
managed to reassert influence across rural areas of southern and
eastern Afghanistan. By 2007, large swathes of the country were
under their control.
19. Following the killing of Osama Bin Laden in his hideout in
Pakistan in 2011, NATO agreed to change the nature of its mission
and reduce its presence.
On 28 December 2014,
NATO ended combat operations in Afghanistan
and officially transferred full
security responsibility to the Afghan government. At the same time, Operation
Resolute Support was established with the aim of helping the Afghan
security forces and institutions develop the capacity to defend
Afghanistan and protect its citizens in the long term.
20. By then, it was clear to all the parties involved that the
end of the conflict could not be achieved only by military means.
The Taliban set up a political office in Doha (Qatar) and developed
diplomatic contacts with the authorities in China, Iran, the Russian
Federation, Tajikistan, Turkey.
They also set up a public affairs
team, relying on social media to revive moral and raise support,
in stark contrast with their previous decision to ban the Internet.
21. The turning point happened in 2018, when the newly appointed
US Special Envoy for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Ambassador Zalmay
Khalilzad, began direct talks with the Taliban in Doha.
These efforts culminated in the
Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the United States
and the Taliban, on 29 February 2020, which is considered by some
critics as an additional milestone towards the Taliban’s return to
power.
22. The Agreement commits the United States to withdraw their
troops from Afghanistan within 14 months while the Taliban agree
not to “allow any of its members, other individuals or groups, including
Al Qaeda, to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security
of the United States and its allies” and to engage in intra-Afghan
negotiations in view of reaching a political settlement.
23. With this diplomatic process under way in Qatar, the Taliban
continued to make military and political advances on the ground.
The Taliban’s attacks against Afghan security forces even intensified,
with 2020 emerging as “the most violent year ever recorded by the
United Nations in Afghanistan, exceeding 25 000 incidents, equal
to a 10% increase over 2019. The level of violence surged from 12
September 2020 onwards as intra-Afghan talks began in Doha”.
At
the same time, the withdrawal of US and allied troops continued according
to the schedule set out in the Agreement.
24. The Taliban’s success accelerated further after the announcement
of the final date of the withdrawal by President Joe Biden. The
rapidity of their advance was grossly misjudged. Conversely, the
capacity of the Afghan forces to counter the attacks was overestimated,
especially in the absence of allied support.
In
a gross intelligence failure, as late as 12 August 2021 the White
House forecast that Kabul may fall in 90 days.
25. After entering the capital, the Taliban held a press conference
on 17 August, announcing an amnesty for all those who had worked
with the foreign military forces, their willingness to maintain
order and security and to avoid looting and violence, including
against foreign embassies and international organisations. They
also announced their commitment to the rights of women within the
framework of Sharia, and the formation of an inclusive government.
26. Despite the display of public assurances, international calls,
including by the UN Security Council, for the Taliban to establish
an inclusive and representative government, with the meaningful
participation of women and minorities, fell flat.
27. The provisional government which was announced at the beginning
of September is led by Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, one of the
movement’s founders. Out of the 33 members, many were already prominent
Taliban leaders before 2001. There are no women and no representatives
of the previous Afghan government. All government members belong
to the Pashtun ethnic group, apart from the Deputy Prime Minister
Mawlawi Abdul Salam Hanafi, who is an ethnic Uzbek, and 2 ethnic
Tajiks.
28. As it has been remarked, “The dominant feature very well may
be a government inclusive of factions within the Taliban”.
Indeed, even if the Taliban
are often described as a unified entity, they are fraught with internal
feuds, splinter groups and clan allegiances.
29. At the time of writing, the authority of the Taliban extends de facto to the whole territory
of Afghanistan. This situation raises a dilemma for the members
of the international community: while no country has so far manifested
the intention to officially recognise the Taliban as the legitimate
government of Afghanistan, engaging with them may be useful and
even necessary with a view to addressing challenges such as the humanitarian
and human rights situation, the fight against terrorism and smuggling
of weapons and drugs.
30. It remains to be seen whether the international community
will be able to put up a common front or whether there will be differences
in the level of engagement and above all whether it will be submitted
to conditionality, as called for by high level representatives of
the United Nations
and
the European Union.
4. Evacuation
31. The evacuation of civilians
from Afghanistan was the first example of pragmatic engagement with
the Taliban. From 14 to 30 August 2021, the United States relied
upon the Taliban to maintain security checkpoints around Kabul's
airport and filter those with the correct paperwork to be evacuated.
In the wake of the suicide bomb attack at Kabul airport on 26 August,
reports suggest that the US shared intelligence with the Taliban
to thwart their common enemy – the Islamic State in Khorasan Province
(ISIS-K) – which claimed responsibility for the attack.
32. While the evacuation was organised under great pressure, it
was one of the largest airlift operations of all times, with more
than 100 000 people being flown out of Afghanistan since 14 August
2021.
33. The Gulf States have been instrumental staging posts for evacuation
flights for Western countries’ citizens as well as Afghan interpreters,
journalists and others, with more than 40 000 people being taken
out via Qatar and more than 35 000 via the United Arab Emirates.
The largest base handling the initial outflow of Afghan evacuees
was Al Udeid Air Base outside Doha, where evacuees were vetted against
the National Counterterrorism Center's terrorist watch list, as
required by US law.
34. The Ramstein Air Base, in Germany, the largest US Air Force base
in Europe, was also a hub for processing Afghan evacuees who had
assisted the United States and its allies during the Afghan war.
About a fifth of all evacuees from Kabul passed through Ramstein. The
base has the capacity for up to 12 000 evacuees. Evacuees went through
medical screenings and were biometrically scanned. As of August
31, a total of 11 700 people had been flown from Ramstein to the
United States or another safe location.
Many countries have announced that
they would temporarily host evacuated Afghans on behalf of the United
States.
35. On 6 September 2021, after the military withdrawal, the United
States evacuated four American citizens from Afghanistan via an
overland route, marking the first overland evacuation facilitated
by the
US
Department of State since the military withdrawal.
At the time of writing, several Qatar airways
flights have continued to evacuate civilians.
36. As demanded by the international community,
it
is of the utmost importance that the Taliban continue to ensure
safe passage for all foreign citizens and Afghan nationals with
travel authorisation from foreign States to leave Afghanistan, as
they have promised in public statements and bilateral contacts.
37. At the same time, Council of Europe member States should ensure
that appropriate schemes are set up for Afghans to be evacuated
to their territories, with clear eligibility criteria and accessible
information being provided.
38. In order to facilitate the repatriation of EU nationals who
are still in Afghanistan and, in so far as possible, the evacuation
of Afghans who have been working with EU member States, the EU Ministers
of Foreign Affairs are considering establishing an EU presence in
Kabul, which seems a realistic possibility following informal discussions
with the Taliban.
5. The
humanitarian situation
39. On 13 September 2021, the Secretary-General
of the United Nations, António Guterres, convened a High-level Ministerial
Meeting on the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, describing
the situation currently experienced by Afghans as “their most perilous
hour”.
The
Taliban’s return to power is adding a layer to the pre-existing
dire humanitarian situation experienced by the population, due to
the combination of a protracted military conflict, repeated droughts,
and the Covid-19 pandemic.
40. Years of fighting have displaced nearly 3 million people within
Afghanistan, to which nearly 600 000 should be added since the beginning
of 2021.
It
is estimated that, to date, out of a population 39 million people,
14 million are exposed to acute food insecurity, including 2 million
children who are at risk of malnutrition.
41. The economy is on the brink of collapse. The price of staple
goods and fuel is increasing; there are widespread food shortages
and a lack of basic services and commodities. Following the Taliban’s
takeover, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank suspended
Afghanistan’s access to funds and the local currency is at an all-time
low. Most of the assets of the Afghan central bank are held outside
Afghanistan, beyond the Taliban’s reach.
42. The ministerial meeting offered an opportunity for the UN
Secretary-General to set out his vision:
- first of all, the United Nations
should remain in Afghanistan and take leadership for providing humanitarian
assistance;
- secondly, it would be impossible to provide humanitarian
assistance inside Afghanistan without engaging with the de facto authorities of the country;
- and thirdly, providing humanitarian assistance would not
be enough if the economy collapses. The consequences of this scenario
would include a mass exodus and greater regional instability.
43. Words of caution about conditionality in relation to humanitarian
assistance were spoken by Peter Maurer, President of the International
Committee of the Red Cross:
“A
long period of limbo, where investment hinges on political recognition
of the government, will only lead to a deeper humanitarian crisis.
Humanitarian action should not be conditioned to political, human
rights or other stipulations. This is a dangerous pathway. It weakens
respect for international humanitarian law and humanitarian actors;
and it erodes the principles of neutral, independent and impartial
humanitarian action”.
44. António Guterres also confirmed that, a few days earlier,
the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency
Relief Coordinator, Martin Griffiths, had held talks with the Taliban
in Kabul. Following these exchanges, the Taliban committed to guaranteeing
that the United Nations would have access to the whole territory,
and to providing the necessary security for UN convoys to reach
insecure areas.
45. The outcome of the gathering showed the willingness of the
international community to respond to the crisis, with a total of
1.2 billion US dollars in humanitarian and development aid being
promised, nearly doubling the initial sum requested by the flash
appeal.
Amongst
the main donors, the European Commission pledged to increase its
contribution for humanitarian aid to Afghanistan to 200 million
€.
It should
be recalled that, since 2002, the EU has provided more than 4 billion
€ in development aid to Afghanistan, making the country the largest
beneficiary of EU development assistance in the world.
46. Since 14 September 2021, UN Humanitarian Air Service flights
into Afghanistan have resumed, transporting food, medical supplies
and other basic relief items. In anticipation of the high food needs
and further disruptions to supply chains, food and other stocks
have been positioned at strategic border points in Pakistan, Tajikistan,
and Uzbekistan.
47. There remain huge challenges, however, given the magnitude
of the needs. In addition, UN agencies on the ground report that,
despite the assurances of the Taliban in Kabul, in some provinces
female humanitarian workers have only been permitted to work in
specific sectors, largely in the areas of health and education while in
others they are not currently permitted to work.
6. Displacement
and international protection
48. Already before the current
crisis, Afghans made up one of the largest refugee populations worldwide. There
are 2.6 million registered Afghan refugees in the world.
It
is estimated that since the beginning of 2021 over 558 000 Afghans
have been internally displaced by the armed conflict within the
country (as of 23 August). Some 80% of these newly displaced persons
are women and children.
49. In August 2021, UNHCR presented its Regional Preparedness
and Emergency Plan for Afghan Refugees,
calling on neighbouring countries
to keep their borders open to allow those who may be at risk to seek
safety, irrespective of whether they were in possession of passports
and visa documentation.
50. Currently, there are already 1 448 100 Afghan refugees in
Pakistan, 780 000 in Iran and 10 700 in Tajikistan. UNHCR points
out that any major influx into Afghanistan’s neighbours will require
the support of the international community, in a spirit of shared
responsibility and burden-sharing. The UN refugee agency also warns
that the number of people fleeing will likely continue to rise and
that, in the most pessimistic scenario, around 500 000 new Afghan
refugees are expected in the region by the end of the year.
51. The issue of a potential influx of refugees and migrants from
Afghanistan was discussed by the EU Ministers of Justice and Home
Affairs on 31 August 2021. In their joint statement, the Ministers
agreed that the EU should remain committed “to support vulnerable
Afghans, and in particular women and children, both in Afghanistan
and in the region”
. To this
end, “the EU will strengthen its support to third countries, in
particular the neighbouring and transit countries, hosting large
numbers of migrants and refugees, to reinforce their capacities
to provide protection, dignified and safe reception conditions and
sustainable livelihood for refugees and host communities.”
52. EU Ministers also expressed their determination to avoid smugglers
and human traffickers exploiting the situation and to co-ordinate
their response with a view to protecting the EU external borders.
In order to meet international protection needs, Ministers wished
to step up “external operations for asylum capacity building” and
are open to support voluntary resettlement schemes, prioritising
vulnerable persons such as women and children.
53. In its resolution of 16 September 2021,
the European Parliament (EP) went
further, underlining that providing support for the reception of
Afghan refugees and migrants in neighbouring countries should not
be an alternative for a fully-fledged European asylum and migration
policy. The EP demands that the EU shoulders its moral responsibilities
as regards refugee protection and expresses support for:
- greater resettlement opportunities,
especially for those who are more at risk and vulnerable;
- the creation of complementary pathways such as humanitarian
visas and a special visa programme for Afghan women seeking protection
from the Taliban;
- the use of the Temporary Protection Directive and Civil
Protection Mechanism.
54. In line with UNHCR’s guidance, the EP also calls on EU member
States to reassess current and recent asylum applications by Afghans
in light of recent developments and calls against forced returns
under any circumstances.
7. Human
rights
55. The Taliban’s return to power
raises major concerns as regards the respect of human rights in Afghanistan.
These concerns are twofold: that the progress which has been achieved
in the past twenty years, especially in areas such as women’s rights,
is dismantled; and that the Taliban, even when holding
de facto power, continue to pursue
the same methods they used as an insurgent group, including summary
and targeted killings,
torture, and other human rights
and humanitarian law violations.
56. These concerns are well-founded. While in their public discourse,
the Taliban have pledged to respect human rights – within the framework
of Sharia law – the reality on the ground contradicts these statements,
as reported by the United Nations, NGOs and media sources.
58. As the UN Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet,
pointed out when opening a special session of the Human Rights Council
devoted to Afghanistan, “Significant advances in the past two decades have
given the people of Afghanistan a strong stake in a society that
values and defends human rights. Civil society organisations have
flourished across the country. Women have assumed public roles and
leadership positions in the media and across society. In 2021, 27%
of members of parliament and one fifth of civil servants were women.
Some 3.5 million girls were attending schools – compared to 1999,
when no girls could attend secondary school and only 9 000 were
enrolled in primary education”.
59. Civil society has changed, and this is reflected in the street
protests that followed the Taliban takeover. And yet, the question
whether the Taliban have changed seems to call for a negative answer,
judging by the way they are stifling criticism and demonstrations.
60. While the international community is unanimous in reaffirming
“the importance of upholding human rights, including those of women,
children and minorities”,
two issues are still to be clarified:
- whether the international community
will also be unanimous in making the engagement with the Taliban conditional
upon the obligations which they have – as de
facto authorities – in relation to the respect of human
rights;
- what mechanisms will be in place to regularly and effectively
monitor the Taliban’s compliance with their obligations and hold
them accountable in case of breaches.
61. As regards this latter issue, on 24 August 2021 the Human
Rights Council “requested the United Nations High Commissioner for
Human Rights to present to the Human Rights Council, at its 48th session,
an oral update on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan,
and to present to the Council, at its 49th session,
a comprehensive written report focusing on,
inter
alia, the accountability of all perpetrators of human
rights violations and abuses in the conflict, to be followed by
an interactive dialogue”.
A
call from the UN Human Rights Commissioner and the Afghanistan Independent
Human Rights Commissioner, Shaharzad Akbar, to establish a specific,
independent monitoring mechanism went unanswered.
8. Terrorism
62. The issue of terrorism occupies
a central place in the Doha Agreement. Under its terms, the Taliban committed
to preventing any group or individual, including al-Qaeda, from
using the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United
States and its allies, namely by providing sanctuary, co-operation,
or help with recruitment, training or fundraising.
63. The United States, on the other hand, with the start of intra-Afghan
negotiations, committed to initiate an administrative review of
the US sanctions and rewards list against members of the Taliban
with the goal of removing these sanctions by 27 August 2020 and
to start diplomatic engagement with other members of the United
Nations Security Council and Afghanistan to remove members of the
Taliban from the sanctions list with the aim of achieving this objective
by 29 May 2020.
64. The Taliban are not designated as a terrorist organisation
either by the United Nations or the United States. Many prominent
members of the Taliban, however, including several figures of the
current interim government, are on the UN,
EU,
US, UK
and other countries’
sanction lists, involving assets freeze, travel ban and arms embargo.
65. Soon after establishing itself, the Taliban interim government
argued that the United States was in breach of the Doha Agreement
and demanded that sanctions should be lifted.
This request concerns, amongst
others, the Minister of the Interior, Sirrajudin Haqqani, who is
accused of attacks against US forces in Afghanistan and for whom
the United States has set a 5 million US$ Bounty.
66. The regular review of the UN sanction list is scheduled before
the end of the year. The decision whether to wave the sanctions
is another important dilemma to which the United States and the
international community as a whole are confronted.
67. The latest UN report about the Taliban and other associated
individuals and entities constituting a threat to the peace stability
and security of Afghanistan provides a snapshot of the presence
of terrorist groups in the country.
68. The report relates that large numbers of Al-Qaeda fighters
and other foreign extremist elements aligned with the Taliban are
located in various parts of Afghanistan and that Al-Qaeda and the
Haqqani Network have close ties, based on ideological alignment,
relationships forged through common struggle and intermarriage.
69. The relation between the Taliban and ISIS-K, instead, remains
one of rivalry, even if there is some degree of cross-over and defection
between the two and assessments of the extent of ISIS-K’s links
with the Haqqani Network differ. This regional wing of Daesh, which
take its name from the historical area known as the Khorasan Province,
emerged in early 2015 from a break-away fringe of the Taliban. Unlike
the Taliban, who pursue a national agenda and struggled for power
in Afghanistan against occupying forces, ISIS-K aspires to realising
a global Islamic caliphate.
Following
a series of successive military setbacks, this group counts only a
few thousand militants and uses bomb attacks against civilians in
highly populated areas. According to media reports, the Taliban
executed former ISIS-K leader Abu Omar Khorasani after they took
over a Kabul lockup where he and several others were being held
after arrests by government forces.
70. Although the Taliban formally deny the presence of any foreign
terrorist fighters, the UN report indicates that between 8 000 to
10 000 of them are present in the country, most of whom originate
from Central Asia, the Caucasus, Pakistan, and the Xinjiang Uyghur
Autonomous Region of China. Most of these foreign fighters are aligned
with the Taliban, although others have also joined the ranks of
Al-Qaeda and ISIS-K.
71. An important question is to understand whether major regional
and international players may converge with the Taliban towards
the common interest of countering international terrorism, as the
Taliban have declared on a number of occasions that their project
concerns Afghanistan and that they do not seek to export their ideology
beyond the borders of Afghanistan.
9. Drug
trafficking
72. Opium poppy production and
drug trafficking are a huge problem in Afghanistan and have represented the
main source of financing for the Taliban since they were ousted
in 2001. To give an idea of the numbers involved, the area under
opium poppy cultivation increased by 37% from 2019 to 2020, with
a potential opium production estimated at 6 300 tons.
For well over a decade, Afghanistan
has been at the centre of the global illicit opiate trade, accounting
for over 80% of global production.
There is increasing evidence also
of the role of Afghanistan as a global producer and supplier of
methamphetamines.
73. “Opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan is driven by a multitude
of factors. Rule of law related challenges, such as political instability,
instability and insecurity caused by insurgency groups, have been found
among the main drivers. Socio-economic factors also impact farmers’
decisions, for example scarce employment opportunities, lack of
quality education and limited access to markets”.
74. The Covid-19 pandemic does not appear to have had an impact
on the three main trafficking routes from Afghanistan: the Balkan
route, which supplies Western and Central Europe through Iran and
Turkey via South-Eastern Europe; the southern route, through Pakistan
and Iran to the Gulf region, Africa, South Asia and, to a lesser
extent, South-East Asia, Oceania and North America; and the northern
route, through Central Asia to the Russian Federation. In addition,
the Caucasus branch of the routes appears to have remained a likely transit
corridor for opiates to European markets. The seizure of Afghan
heroin in Azerbaijan reportedly increased to 2 240 kg in 2020, compared
to 802 kg in 2019.
75. The issue of narcotics in Afghanistan has so far remained
unaddressed in the talks with the Taliban even if it is one of the
central obstacles in the efforts to bring peace, stability, security
and economic development to the country and the wider region. It
is also a security threat to Europe, as underlined by the Assembly
in 2013.
It is no surprise, therefore, that
the neighbouring countries and the Russian Federation are keen to
bring the Taliban to the negotiating table also with a view to tackling
narcotics production and trafficking,
and from recent talks it seems
that the Taliban may be prepared to do so.
An additional point is also made with reference
to economic sanctions as some observers argue, if maintained, that
they would push the Taliban into resorting to drug trafficking as
a source of income even further.
10. The regional dimension
76. Countries of the region are
following developments in Afghanistan with great attention. They
are the first ones to be concerned at the prospect of a continuation
of violence or a descent into civil war. Similarly, they would be
the first ones to suffer the consequences of an upsurge of terrorism,
violent extremism, drug trafficking and other criminal activities
in Afghanistan, which would have broader destabilising effects.
77. Neighbouring countries would be in the frontline should there
be a large-scale arrivals of refugees; they are particularly concerned
as they could be drawn into a challenging security situation owing
to the presence of foreign fighters and kin ethnic groups involved
in militia activities in Afghanistan.
Many of them are under strain because they
have provided shelter to Afghans for decades.
78. It is not surprising, therefore, that in the last few months
diplomatic dialogue has intensified with the organisation of dedicated
meetings of regional organisations such as the Collective Security
Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
(SCO) and initiatives such as the Troika on Afghanistan – involving
the Russian Federation, Pakistan and China – or the Moscow format.
79. From the output of these fora, it is evident that, while excluding
formal recognition, the countries of the region support a pragmatic
engagement with the Taliban. Their interests converge towards giving
priority to the formation of an inclusive and representative government
which would be a reliable partner in the fight against terrorism
and drug trafficking. Some of them do not exclude the conditional
delisting of some Taliban figures from UN sanctions
and
are asking international financial institutions to unblock funding
and assets that were frozen in the aftermath of the Taliban takeover.
80. At the same time, the withdrawal of the United States and
its disengagement from the central Asian theatre may have created
new opportunities for regional powers to assert their political
and economic influence. The first country that comes to mind is
China which, as of 2020, was the main foreign investor in Afghanistan,
and
has a keen interest in the country’s natural riches – especially
its deposits of rare earth minerals – and hopes to connect to Afghanistan,
India and Pakistan through the massive infrastructure investment
project of the Belt and Road Initiative.
11. Conclusions
81. In the past twenty years, Council
of Europe member States have heavily invested in Afghanistan, providing
troops, humanitarian aid, financial support, advice, training and
capacity building in an effort to create a stable, democratic, peaceful
and secure country, free of terrorism and violent extremism. The
withdrawal of the United States and its allies and the return to
power of the Taliban have opened a new phase which is fraught with
uncertainties and risks. Military withdrawal, however, should not
translate into political withdrawal. The core values of the Council
of Europe – human rights, democracy and the rule of law – which
are enshrined in a number of universal standards, should serve as
guidance in the policies on Afghanistan.
82. The first and foremost imperative for the international community
should be tackling the dire humanitarian situation and preventing
it from deteriorating further. To this end, Council of Europe member States
should support the role of the United Nations as the leader and
co-ordinator of humanitarian action. They should honour and even
step up the financial pledges they have made, without requiring
any conditionality for the provision of their support. If this was
not to be the case, Afghans, rather than the regime in Afghanistan,
would bear the brunt.
83. The crucial dilemma with which the international community
is confronted is whether and how to engage with the Taliban. In
fact, this issue is a litmus test for the capacity of the international
community to send out a coherent message to the de facto authorities in Kabul. Cautious,
pragmatic, operational engagement with the Taliban is the only way
for the international community not to turn its back on Afghans.
Without the Taliban’s consent it would not be possible to reach
out to the population to meet its needs; similarly, it would not
be possible to continue the evacuation of foreign nationals and
those thousands of Afghans who have worked with foreign countries
and are still in Afghanistan.
84. It is clear from their statements and demands, such as their
recent request to address the UN General Assembly,
that
the Taliban are in search of international recognition. As an immediate
step, dialogue, engagement and co-ordination are possible but should
be made conditional upon their actions, namely the respect of human
rights – including women’s rights and the rights of minorities –
and the rejection of terrorism, domestically and internationally.
Appropriate mechanisms should be put in place to ensure the monitoring
of developments on the ground.
85. By exerting political leverage on the Taliban, Council of
Europe member States should demand that the progress which has been
made in the past twenty years in the field of human rights is not
rolled back and promote a convergence of interests in the fight
against terrorism. Furthermore, countering the production and trafficking
of narcotics and other criminal activities should be part and parcel
of the dialogue with the Taliban and the efforts aimed at stabilising
Afghanistan and avoiding international spill-over effects.
86. The current crisis is bound to provoke further displacement,
inside and outside Afghanistan. The conditions should be created
for refugees to be provided safety and shelter within the region,
in a spirit of solidarity. Notwithstanding, Council of Europe member
States should shoulder their moral and legal responsibilities for
refugee protection.
87. The pros and cons of using financial pressure to reinforce
political leverage on the Taliban should be carefully weighted.
Appropriate mechanisms should be found to avoid that such sanctions,
freezing of assets and withholding of development aid aggravate
the hardship already endured by the population and lead to an even
greater reliance on criminal activities, with detrimental effects
beyond the borders of Afghanistan.
88. In a recent address before the European Parliament, the EU
High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep
Borrel captured in a sentence the multiple dimensions of the present
situation: “If we want to look at Afghanistan after the end of August,
we have to look at that from these three points of view: as the
Afghan people tragedy, as the Western setback and, for the whole
world, a change in international relations”.
89. These words should spur Council of Europe member States to
analyse what happened in a self-critical way. They should open a
constructive and forward-looking reflection on the place of Europe
in the new possible geopolitical configuration and pull their weight
to support dialogue, diplomacy and multilateralism, with a view to
ensuring peace and stability.