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24 January 1992
Doc. 6550
1403-22/1/92-2-E
Report
on climate change
(Rapporteur: Mr TIURI, Finland, National Coalition Party)
SUMMARY
Climate change is one of the new challenges facing our planet. If emissions of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity continue at the present level, serious problems will arise in agricultural production, certain species will become extinct, and coastal areas will be badly affected, as will economic and social life in general.
With such prospects ahead it is not possible to postpone action on the grounds that scientific hypotheses still contain an element of uncertainty. It will be far more effective to reduce emissions now than in ten or twenty years' time. Accordingly, early action will serve as an "insurance policy" against potential future disasters.
At present we do not have a magic solution to climate change. A combination of various policy instruments is necessary, including a series of measures ranging from increased scientific co-operation to the establishment of international legal instruments. However, energy policies are the key issue. It is essential to review and adjust these policies, and in particular to adopt a new, more constructive approach to nuclear power.
I. DRAFT RESOLUTION
1. The Assembly is aware of the new challenges facing our planet. It has urged for action in Resolution 919 (1989) on the destruction of tropical forests - causes and remedies, Resolution 926 (1989) on the danger of climatic changes and the protection of the ozone layer, Recommendation 1130 (1990) on the formulation of a European charter and a European convention on environmental protection and sustainable development and Recommendation 1140 (1991) on global environmental change and the role of science and democracy.
2. There is now consensus among the large majority of environmental experts that climate change is the most serious one of these challenges. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) is organising the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Earth Summit) in June 1992 in Brazil. The main task of the conference is to reach an international agreement for limiting the advancement of climate change.
3. If emissions of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons, nitrous oxide) resulting from human activities continue at present level, the global mean temperature will increase by 2oC in forty years and by 4oC before the end of the next century, causing the extinction of many species, advanced desertification and a rise in sea level. It will lead to serious problems in agricultural production and in coastal cities and states.
4. With such perspectives ahead it is not possible to postpone action and wait for full scientific proof of climate change. Experts pont out that reductions of emissions now are more effective than even larger reductions made later. An early action will serve as an "insurance policy" against potential future disasters. The reduction of greenhouse gases will also help to solve other environmental problems such as acid rain, particle emissions and ozone layer depletion.
5. Climate change is a global problem concerning the whole planet. Emissions in any country will add to the total atmospheric content of greenhouse gases. Hence, global action is necessary.
6. The main responsibility of reduction of emission lies with the industrialised countries which at present are the prime producers of emissions. However, the developing countries will represent an increasingly significant percentage of global emissions. Their emissions will grow and may need to grow in order to meet with their requirements for development.
7. The most important greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, is mainly caused by production and use of energy by fossil fuels. The target is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions globally by over 60%. The allowed average carbon dioxide emissions will then be 0,2 tonnes per capita (assuming world population of 10 billion) as compared to the present value of 3-5 tonnes in many industrialised countries. The world energy system is so large and energy plays such an important role in economic well-being that noticeable reduction of carbon dioxide emissions will be difficult to achieve fast. Hence, the reduction must be started immediately. The industrialised countries must cut emissions as fast as possible and allow developing countries to have relatively larger emissions.
8. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are important greenhouse gases, but fortunately most countries are already reducing their emissions in order to respect the international agreement for ozone layer protection. Sources of other greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide) are diverse and not yet well-known. More research and monitoring are needed to assess controlling procedures for them.
9. The Assembly is persuaded that there exists no simple solution against climate change. A combination of all possible policy instruments is necessary and, in spite of these, global warming can still reach dangerous levels. Responses will have to be envisaged including prevention strategies (reducing emissions), compensation strategies (reforestation) and socio-cultural strategies (adapting to new conditions).
10. In the light of the above-mentioned, the Assembly calls on member states to implement the following policy responses to climate change:
i. Encourage international co-operation and legal instruments: member states should give their full political support to the International Convention on Climate Change which is to be signed at the United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development (Earth Summit) to be held in Brazil in June 1992. Member states should also speed up the fulfilment of the Montreal Protocol on reducing the use of CFCs and aim at the global elimination of CFC emissions.
ii. Stabilise carbon dioxide emissions at their 1990 level in 2000: the final target is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions globally by over 60%. A realistic but ambitious assessment would be to limit carbon dioxide emissions to their 1990 level in 2000 and cut them by more than 30% by 2025. This assessment implies energy conservation, improving the energy efficiency and switching to energy production systems causing less or no carbon dioxide emissions.
iii. Review and adjust energy programmes: at present the official energy programmes of many member states indicate a growth of carbon dioxide emissions by some 20% by 2000. According to the programmes energy use per capita will stay almost constant but this is achieved by using more electricity produced with fossil fuels causing increased emissions. On the other hand several member states have announced plans to stabilise emissions by 2000 and cut them by 20% to 30% by 2005. The programmes must be checked, adjusted and co-ordinated for achieving the desired reduction. The energy programmes of developing countries must also be reviewed, in order to achieve a real global view of emission rates.
iv. Promote energy conservation and energy efficiency: there is a great technical potential in the long term, to reduce emissions by energy conservation and by producing and using energy more efficiently. With promoting research and development and appropriate policies, in the next two decades this rate can reach 25% in transport, 50% in homes and offices, 30% or more in industry. However, these savings will be partly cancelled due to the increasing number of units and to the growing world population. Taxation on carbon dioxide emissions can be one way to promote savings. If applied, taxes should be globally agreed in order not to distort world trade.
v. Promote energy production methods and fossil fuels emitting less carbon dioxide: emissions from fossil fuel plants can be reduced by switching to fossil fuels producing less carbon dioxide (in decreasing order: peat, coal, oil, gas) and by applying new combined cycle technologies.
vi. Promote safe nuclear power: the only non-fossil energy source which can significantly cut emissions in the near future is nuclear energy. The new energy sources, renewable and others, can replace it later, but the fulfilment of reduction targets during the next decades is possible only if, in addition to energy conservation, many fossil fuel plants are substituted with nuclear plants. This should be done in the industrialised countries to allow developing countries to increase their fossil fuel use. If nuclear energy can be tripled in industrialised countries in twenty years (hence, increasing nuclear energy production with the same speed as in the last decade) one billion tons of carbon emissions (almost 20% of the present energy related emissions) will be cut yearly. A public education and information campaign would however, be necessary to dissipate distorted images about the safety of nuclear energy and the dangers of radiation in comparison to the dangers fossil fuel plants cause to the health of people and nature. An international agreement on the best way of disposing of nuclear waste could help to end the controversy on this point.
vii. Promote research, development and demonstration of passively safe nuclear power: passively safe reactors can be commercialised in the next decade if their development is accelerated.
viii. Promote research, development and demonstration on renewable and other sustainable energy sources: the Assembly has adopted an extensive text on renewable energy sources (see Resolution 974 (1991). Large inertia in the world energy system due to its magnitude and investments makes fast changes difficult, but with strong policy support in the resarch, development and demonstration phase the share of these energy sources could exceed 10% of world commercial energy needs during the first decades of next century. Research on fuel cells and fusion energy should also be promoted.
ix. Review aid and technology transfer programmes to developing countries: special new assistance, particularly financial assistance, should be provided to developing countries for modernisation of power plants, for construction of more efficient fossil fuel plants and for the development of renewable energy sources. Forestry projects should be supported. Converting part of the debt to payments towards these efforts should also be considered. In former Central and Eastern European socialist countries there is great potential for saving energy and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by technology transfer. The European Energy Charter is an important step in the right direction in utilising large energy sources with environmentally proper technology.
x. Promote reforestation and care of forests: about 20% of global carbon dioxide emissions are due to the deforestation of some 17 million hectares every year. Aid programmes to stop deforestation in developing countries and to help reforestation will significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Member states should engage in international action for saving the rain forest and other forests in tropical regions. In industrial countries the proper management of forests can make them carbon dioxide sinks during the next decades.
xi. Promote international monitoring and co-ordination on climate change issues: it is high time for governments to consider seriously creating a global climate observing system, designed to meet the needs of climate change detection and response monitoring.
xii. Enhance scientific research: scientific research on climate, and on climate change and its effects must be encouraged. Data acquisition, collection and analysis must be vigorously supported. The use of remote sensing satellites should be extended and co-ordinated. Dialogue within and between involved scientific disciplines must be stimulated in order to reorientate scientists to working in a more global perspective.
xiii. Improve information transfer to policy-makers: given the complex relationship between greenhouse gases/climate/environment/ technology/economy, it is an absolute necessity that policy-makers obtain the best and newest available scientific data. The success of future policy responses in controlling climate change will depend on a continuous dialogue between scientists and policy-makers.
II. EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM
by Mr Tiuri
INTRODUCTION
1. The aim of this report is twofold:
- to take stock of both scientific novelties and policy changes which occurred since September 1989, the date of adoption by the Assembly of its first report on climatic changes and the ozone layer, and to measure the progress;
- to make a parliamentary contribution to the international reflection and give political support to efforts for the adoption of an international convention at the World Conference on the Environment and Development to be held in Brazil in 1992;
2. The Houston Economic Declaration, signed in July 1990, by the heads of state and government of the seven major industrial countries and the President of the Commission of the European Community, stated: "... One of our most important responsibilities is to pass on the future generations an environment whose health, beauty and economic potential are not threatened ..."
Nothing is less certain today, if drastic action is not taken. Industrialised nations have a particular responsibility in meeting the new challenges.
3. A milestone on the long path to better awareness of the new phenomena threatening the planet was the 2nd World Climate Conference (Geneva, November 1990). Despite divergences on the details of different climate models, scientists from all over the world agreed that "if the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations is not limited, the predicted climate change would place stresses on natural and social systems unprecedented in the 10 000 years". This is why the lack of full scientific data is no excuse to postpone action.
Any early action will serve as an "insurance policy" against potential future disasters. Even if the prediction of climate catastrophe is proven to be not entirely correct by further research, the suggested measures are justified in their own right and will contribute to a better world.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
4. Emissions resulting from human activities are increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases (GHGs), carbon dioxide (current rate of change O,5% per year), methane (1% per year), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) (about 4% per year) and nitrous oxide (0,25% per year) (Appendix I, fig 1). GHGs absorb infrared radiation emitted from the earth's surface and prevent its escape into space resulting in an additional warming of the earth's surface. One of the main greenhouse gases, water vapour, will increase in response to global warming and may further enhance it.
5. The Climate Change has been studied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) nominated by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). IPCC's report (July 1990) predicts that if emissions continue as present (Business-as-Usual Scenario or Scenario A) the global mean temperature will increase by about 1oC above the present value by 2025 (about 2oC above that in the pre-industrial period) and 3oC above today's value before the end of the next century (about 4oC above pre-industrial) (Appendix I, fig 3).
6. Land surfaces warm more rapidly than the oceans and higher northern latitudes warm more than the global mean. The oceans act as a heat sink and thus delay the full effect of greenhouse warming. (Appendix II: Climate change concerns by region).
7. Natural terrestrial ecosystems will be markedly influenced because the rate of climate change will be too fast for the ability of some species to adjust. Scenario A indicates rates that are 10-50 times faster than during the ice age recovery period. Many species could become extinct. Some current forests, for example northern conifer forests, will decline in a climate to which they are increasingly poorly adapted, while a potential for forest growth might develop elsewhere.
8. It cannot yet be conclusively determined whether on average global agricultural potential would increase or decrease, but the climate change would have important effects locally. According to the IPCC report agricultural production for the world as a whole would remain about the same if the earth warms by 1°C by 2025 and by 3°C by 2100. But those areas that could not adjust well to reductions in rainfall may face "severe" drops in harvests. Brazil, Peru, the Sahel region of Africa, Southeast Asia, China, the Asian part of Soviet Union and the Mid-West of the United States of America can be mentioned in this category.
9. Comparatively small changes of climate can cause large water resource problems. The availability of water and biomass might be significantly affected causing problems especially in many developing countries.
10. Due to climate change the global mean sea level will rise about 6 cm per decade over the next century (Scenario A), with an uncertainty range of 3-10 cm per decade. A rise of sea level by 30-50 cm would affect significantly the habitability of low-lying coastal regions and a one metre rise would render some island countries uninhabitable, displace tens of millions of people, threaten low-lying urban areas, flood productive land and contaminate fresh water supplies (Appendix III: Impact of sea level rise on Bangladesh).
11. As regards socio-economic impact sea level rise alone can have dramatic results. Apart from the obvious loss of agricultural land, water management in coastal regions will become increasingly difficult and costly because of salt water intrusion in fresh ground water. Shipping and port facilities will be affected, recreational beaches will face rapid erosion, thus threatening the tourism industry. Most off-shore oil platforms will have to be redesigned. Hazardous waste, buried in low lying sites will become a health threat.
More generally, the climate change will affect regional balances, food security and trade. Supply and demand equilibrium for some crops will be upset. Infrastructure systems such as water supplies, building
design, town planning, energy generation and construction will be radically affected. Finally, transport (sea, air and land) sector is very sensitive to climate change scenarios.
MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO THE CLIMATE CHANGE
12. The most important GHG is carbon dioxide (CO2) causing a present 55% of the global warming (Appendix I, fig 2). Its main man-made source is energy production and use. The combustion of fossil fuels - coal, oil, natural gas, peat - releases about 6 billion tons of carbon in the atmosphere each year. Deforestation also increases carbon dioxide emissions. Some 17 million hectares of rain forest and other forests are destroyed every year adding 1-2 billion tons of carbon in the atmosphere. (Appendix IV. Carbon emissions of some countries in 1960 and in 1987 (1988)).
13. Fortunately the oceans absorb about half of the carbon emitted to the atmosphere due to human activities and only 3,5 billion tons will stay in the atmosphere. If the oceans become warmer, their net uptake of carbon dioxide may decrease because of changes in the chemistry of carbon dioxide in seawater, biological activity in surface waters and the rate of exchange of carbon dioxide between the surface layers and the deep ocean.
14. Chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs contribute at present 24% to the greenhouse effect. They are known for their depletion of ozone layer. CFCs are synthetic chemical compounds used in refrigerators and other cooling systems and in making foam plastic. CFCs are far more effective per kilogramme in heating the atmosphere than any of the other GHGs. Hence relatively small amounts of CFCs are important.
15. Methane (CH4) is responsible for 15% of the climate change. It is produced in large quantities by livestock and rice cultivation. Other sources of methane due to human activities include biomass burning, fossil fuel production and decomposition in landfills. Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies are particularly sensitive to temperature and soil moisture. Higher temperatures could increase the emissions of methane at high northern latitudes from decomposable organic matter trapped in permafrost.
16. Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are due to nitrogenous fertilizer use, land clearing, biomass burning, and fossil fuel combustion. Nitrous oxide causes 6% of the climate change. There are several other greenhouse gases. Ozone (O3) may be an important GHG, but its effects are difficult to quantify.
17. The atmospheric lifetimes of GHGs are determined by their sources and sinks in the oceans, atmosphere and biosphere. Carbon dioxide, CFCs and nitrous oxide are removed very slowly from the atmosphere and hence, following a change in emissions, their atmospheric concentrations take decades to centuries to adjust fully.
18. The atmospheric warming potential of a GHG is dependent on its ability to absorb infrared radiation and on its life time in the atmosphere. It can be stated as an equivalent carbon dioxide emission having the same heating potential. Adding all GHGs together gives the carbon dioxide heating equivalent.
19. The six countries with the highest greenhouse gas net emissions, United States of America, Soviet Union, Brazil, China, India and Japan accounted in 1987 for more than half of the world total emissions. Most OECD countries, however, are searching for ways of lowering their GHG emissions. The scientific, public and political forces are now at work in the industrialised countries to change energy use patterns have little influence on the developing countries who have limited financial and technological options at their disposal.
LIMITING THE CLIMATE CHANGE
20. IPCC has determined the reductions that are necessary in the human-made emissions of GHGs in order to stabilize concentrations at present day levels. Carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced more than 60%, methane emissions by 15-20%, nitrous oxide emissions 70-80% and CFC (CFC11 and CFC12) emissions by 70-85%.
21. Even if we are able to stabilise emissions of each of the greenhouse gases at current levels right away, the average temperature is predicted to rise by about 0,2 degrees per decade for the first few decades due to the delay caused by oceans.
22. Continued growth in emissions of GHGs reduces the options for future generations to stabilise at any particular level of concentration. The longer the emissions continue to increase at present day rates, the greater reductions would have to be for concentrations to stabilise at a given level. Reductions now are more effective than similar reductions later.
23. The potentially serious consequences of climate change on the global environment give good reasons to begin by adopting reduction strategies even in the face of significant uncertainties.
24. Climate change is a global issue. Effective responses require a global effort and international agreements. Because the major part of GHGs emissions originate in industrialised countries (including Eastern Europe and the USSR), these have specific responsibilities and should take the lead. These countries should also adopt domestic measures to limit climate change. Existing international agreements on environmental subjects serve as examples (Appendix V: international legal instruments).
25. GHG emissions from developing countries are growing and may need to grow in order to meet their development requirements. Thus developing countries will represent an increasingly significant percentage of global emissions. This requires that industrialised countries reduce their emissions correspondingly more.
26. Elimination of the CFCs has already been started by international agreements to prevent their destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer (Appendix V). There are plans to replace CFCs by HCFCs and HFCs. They are weaker GHGs, but effort should be made to find other replacements which have still less or no greenhouse warming potential.
27. Sources of methane, nitrous oxide and ozone are diverse and the quantitative importance of each of their sources are not yet well known. Hence emission reductions may prove difficult to achieve and the
effectiveness of different control strategies hard to evaluate. More research and improved monitoring techniques are needed to assess control procedures of these GHGs.
28. The reduction of carbon dioxide emissions should be started as soon as possible. The first step is to stabilise emissions at the present level. Several countries have already stated that they will achieve it in the year 2000 (Appendix VI: Country Policy Plans for Reduction/Stabilisation of CO2 Emissions). The final target is to cut them down more than 60%.
29. Because about 80% of carbon dioxide emissions are due to production of energy by fossil fuels, the world energy system must be thoroughly changed in order to limit the climate change. These systems are so large that it will take many decades to achieve. Also it must be remembered that the energy sector plays a vitally important role in economic well being and development for all nations.
30. There are several options to reduce carbon dioxide emissions of energy systems:
- efficiency improvements and conservation in energy supply, conversion, and end use;
- substitution for energy systems which cause low or no carbon dioxide emissions (hydro power, nuclear energy, renewable energy sources);
- behavioural and structural changes in the society etc.
31. Deforestation is responsible for about 20% of carbon dioxide emissions. Every year about 17 million hectares of forests are destroyed in the world. A major decrease of the rate of deforestation can significantly reduce the growth of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. An annual increase in reforestation of 12 million hectares for a period of forty years can fix 25 to 40 billion tons of carbon into the terrestrial biosphere. This is about 10% of the emissions of carbon dioxide due to fossil fuel burning (scenario A) during this period of time.
ENERGY CONSERVATION AND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT
32. For a long time, economic growth in the world was closely connected with the growth in energy use. Both the gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption grew at about the same speed. After the oil crisis in 1973 the connection has become less direct in the industrialised countries, but is still holding in developing countries. Use of energy has nearly doubled in last 20 years from 1970 to 1990. In OECD countries energy use has grown two thirds slower than GDP (Appendix VII, fig 1: Growth trends for GDP, energy and electricity 1970-90). In spite of this, electricity consumption has grown faster than GDP. In developing countries it has grown twice as fast as GDP.
33. It cannot be expected that the trend of growing energy use with growing GDP can be changed suddenly, but it will be possible to slow the rise further and gradually stop it. When the total energy use in the industrial countries will gradually stabilise, the consumption of electricity will still continue to grow. End use of fuel in industry and households will be substituted by electricity. The Commission of the European Communities (CEC) predicts in its "Conventional Wisdom"-scenario that world energy demand in 2010 is about 60% higher than today. Most of the growth occurs in developing countries. The prediction is based on the assumption that economic growth is on average 3,2% per year with an oil price of 20 dollars per barrel from 1990 to 2000 and 30 dollars thereafter. The scenario is close to the Scenario A of IPCC.
34. If energy production methods stay the same as presently, global carbon dioxide emissions will grow more than 60% because the share of electric power will increase due to the growing demand for electricity service particularly in developing countries. It is an extremely difficult task to achieve a decrease in emissions in this situation. Both conservation of energy and drastic changes in energy production are inevitable.
35. In considering the energy conservation potential it is useful to compare the energy efficiency of different economies. They vary markedly. The United States of America is only half as energy efficient as Western Europe or Japan in generating a unit of GDP. On the other hand it is twice as efficient as China and more efficient than the Soviet Union or most of Eastern Europe. Many newly industrialised countries are the least efficient of all. The best chances for conservation are in the least energy efficient countries.
36. There is a great technical potential to reduce emissions by energy conservation and efficiency improvement in end use. For at least two decades, losses in energy use have decreased by around one per cent every year due to technological development. If pursued vigorously, greater reductions will materialise in the medium and long term time horizons.
37. Over the long term, energy use at homes and offices can be reduced by 50% to 70% through development and implementation of technology, such as improved insulation and construction materials of buildings and using more effective lighting and more efficient appliances. In Finland and other Scandinavian countries for example, the specific heating energy of buildings per unit floor area has decreased by more than 30% in fifteen years due to thicker insulation and triple windows. Extensive use of district heating has further improved the efficiency of heating making the specific energy consumption 25% lower than in Western Germany where district heating is not common. Combined heat and electicity production in communities and industry save energy by reaching total efficiency as high as 85%.
Large improvements to appliances have been achieved in the last fifteen years due to technological development. The power consumption of refrigerators has dropped to one third and that of air conditioners to half. It is to be expected that similar reductions are possible in the future through R & D. However overall consumption will not be significantly reduced and may even increase due to the growing number of units and buildings larger flats and the shortage of investment money.
38. In many industrial countries, transportation causes over one quarter of the carbon dioxide emissions. Global carbon dioxide missions from motor vehicles have grown from half a billion tons of carbon per year in 1970 to near one billion tons of carbon in 1990. Fortunately, carbon emissions per motor vehicle have decreased in the same time from 2 to 1,5 tons and new-car fuel efficiency has improved by 2-3% per year.
Present trends indicate that the number of motor vehicles in the world can double to one billion in twenty years. With fuel efficiency improvement in cars of three per cent per year on average carbon dioxide emissions will be 25% lower in 2010. The fuel consumption per car will then be about half of the present value. This requires no new technology and can be achieved by stimulating R & D work. Comparable improvements in trucks and buses are also needed. Further reductions of emissions imply new energy sources and fuels. Electric cars especially in cities and hydrogen burning cars, which produce no carbon dioxide, offer solutions in a long time scale.
39. In industry, efficiency improvements and new, more efficient processes help to cut carbon dioxide emissions. Often the technologies are already available but for different reasons investments are not encouraged to achieve improvements. It should be possible by basic research and R & D efforts to reduce the energy required per unit of production by 1,5% on average per year. In many cases, it is possible to decrease total energy consumption by increasing the use of electricity due to its flexibility and the low losses in end use. Increased recycling of materials can also save energy.
40. On the energy supply side, the efficiency of electricity generation in conventional fossil fuel plants has improved and is now close to 40%, which is near to the limit of steam cycle technology. In many countries actual efficiency is still much lower due to use of old plants and to the lack of technology. Technology transfer and development contributes to enhance efficiency and decreases carbon dioxide emissions. New combined cycle technologies employing a combination of gas and steam turbines promise efficiency improvements. Efficiency rates of over 50% should be possible in future, when new technologies and materials have been fully developed.
41. Emissions from fossil fuel plants can be reduced by switching to fossil fuels producing less carbon dioxide per unit of energy. Oil produces about 20% less carbon dioxide and natural gas 40% less than coal. Peat is worse producing 20% higher carbon dioxide emissions than coal. Natural gas will play an important role in reducing emissions. Its economic availability worldwide and uncertainties regarding its contribution to climate change (methane leakage from gas fields and pipe lines etc.) can be limiting factors.
42. Large reductions of carbon dioxide emissions are possible by applying new technologies and by stimulating R & D. However, reductions are partly compensated by additional use caused by growing population and rise in standards of living. The international Senior Expert Symposium on Electricity and the Environment held in Helsinki in May 1991 concluded that "... the most stringent reduction target (of carbon dioxide emissions) cannot be met without socially and economically unacceptable curtailments in electricity services. Less stringent reduction can be achieved, but only with forceful policy intervention".
43. It is the opinion of your rapporteur, that the best that can be achieved through energy conservation and efficiency improvement is to limit carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 at the same level as in 1990. In 2000, this target can not be reached. Higher reductions are possible in the longer time.
HYDRO POWER AND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
44. In order to be able to reduce carbon dioxide emissions of energy production and use from the present level after the year 2000, energy supplies causing no carbon dioxide emissions must be employed as extensively as possible. Hydroelectric energy can be important globally. Especially, many developing countries have great potential. The lack of investment capital will slow the construction of hydro power plants. Also environmental impacts and the risk of accidents may limit development.
45. Renewable energy sources, solar and wind energy and biofuels have great future potential. They are extensively considered in Doc. 6456 (Report on renewable energy sources and solar hydrogen) of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.
46. The world energy system is a very large infrastructure. It contains huge investments and applies technologies which take a long time to develop if new energy sources are incorporated. In the past, it has always taken forty years for a new energy system to grow from 0% to 10% of world commercial energy sources (Appendix VII, fig 2)
47. At present, the yearly production of solar photovoltaic cells in the whole world is only 50 megawatts peak power and the electricity production of all the world wind mills equals the electricity production of one medium size fossil fuel plan being less than O.O1 % of world energy production.
48. Passive solar radiation and biomass fuels have potential for faster increase than other renewable sources. Actually biomass is already applied in a large scale in cellulose factories, where the lignin of wood is burned to obtain energy for the production process. Technologies for other biofuels are still to be developed and tested in large scale. Biofuels do not add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere if the same amount of biomass is grown as used. However, the burning of biomass produces nitrous oxides and methane, thus adding to GHGs. Biomass burning also contributes to acid rain by producing nitrogen oxides.
49. The most optimistic adherents of renewable energy sources believe that it is possible to obtain 20-50% of the world's energy from renewable sources in 2030. Energy experts and your rapporteur are of the opinion that with strong policy support, their share in 2030 could be at most 5-10% (non commercial sources not taken into account). This is due to the fact that most renewable sources are still in the research and development phase and the market penetration in energy system is a slow process (Appendix VII, fig. 2).
NUCLEAR ENERGY
50. Renewable energy sources will be very important in keeping the greenhouse effect under control in the long run but they can not help appreciably during the next two or three decades which are vital for limiting the greenhouse effect. The only non-fossil energy source, which can significantly cut carbon dioxide emissions during the next decades, is nuclear energy.
51. During the last decade, the generation of nuclear energy tripled and it now produces over 5% of the commercial energy and 17% of the electrical energy of the world. In France its share of electricity production is three quarters and in Belgium, Finland, Hungary, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland its share exceeds one third. Due to nuclear energy, half a billion tons less carbon is emitted to the atmosphere each year. This indicates that nuclear energy has the potential to make a substantial contribution towards a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions (and gases causing acid rain). Technically, it can be deployed on a much larger scale and at competitive cost. By tripling nuclear energy again in twenty years, an additional one billion tons of carbon can be cut yearly.
52. An example how nuclear power can help to reduce carbon dioxide emissions is shown in a scenario for Finland (Appendix VII, fig 3). By adding a nuclear energy plant every five to ten years emissions can be stabilised. If, in addition to normal efficiency improvement, energy conservation, extra efficiency improvements and renewable energy sources are applied, emissions can be cut by 40% in 2025 as compared to emissions in 1990.
53. It must be recognised that about three quarters of fossil fuels are consumed in industrialised countries. The development similar to Finland or France is possible in all these countries, which have developed infrastructure, good administration and high quality safety culture. Using high technology like nuclear power instead of fossil fuels in industrialised countries would have great positive influence in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Saving fossil fuels for developing countries would help building their infrastructure and reduce deforestation.
54. In the opinion of your rapporteur sufficient control of the greenhouse effect is possible only if nuclear energy is accepted as one important means. The problem with nuclear energy is that its social acceptability remains questionable. Accidents and fear of radiation have raised distrust. Accidents can happen, but the risks are smaller and the consequences of accidents less dramatic than is generally believed. Dangers of radiation are also greatly overestimated. The public must be educated to give it a realistic picture of different energy systems. Paragraphs 55-62 are the rapporteur's attempt to give to the readers an accurate view in this respect.
55. There is no completely safe way to produce energy. Fossil fuel power plants emit sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides causing acid rain. Their particle emissions are mutagenic and carcinogenic and they release ionising radiation due to naturally radioactive materials in fuels. Finally, their carbon dioxide emissions are the main reason for the greenhouse effect threatening to bring the earth to climate catastrophe.
56. The serious accident at Chernobyl in 1986 demonstrated the dangers of nuclear power plants with graphite reactors. It caused deaths and spread dangerous radiation thousands of kilometres way, making it necessary to evacuate large areas around the site and to leave them unused for a long time. The disaster badly eroded public confidence in nuclear power and has in some countries led to decisions not to use it.
57. The view of nuclear energy experts and your rapporteur is that assessment of nuclear energy on the basis of Chernobyl is not reasonable, because the safety of chernobyl-type graphite moderated nuclear reactors and water moderated reactors fullfilling the reactor norms of Western countries are totally different. Graphite reactors are inherently unstable and hence, if their cooling water is lost, energy production will start to increase without restraint. The result can be that the reactor becomes a torch distributing nuclear material high into the atmosphere to be carried by the winds as happened in Chernobyl.
58. Water moderated reactors are inherently stable. If the cooling water is lost, the energy production of the reactor stops. In addition, reactors in Western power plants are closed inside a containment. The accident at Harrisburg was technically as bad as that of Chernobyl. The reactor core started to melt due to the heat left in the reactor, but practically no nuclear material was released outside the containment.
59. The safety of Western nuclear plants has been improved continuously. Risk analysis indicates that the risk of reactor core melting in best nuclear power plants is now once in several hundred thousand years. If melting happens, there is still a high probability that the containment will keep the radioactive material inside the building. In the worst case, radioactive material can be released into the immediate vicinity of the reactor building.
60. The latest development in the field of nuclear power are passively safe reactors. They are constructed so that if something goes wrong, the laws of nature stop the operation and there is no need for human intervention or active technical components at all. Passively safe reactors are ready and can be taken into commercial use in a few years. An additional advantage is that they can be modular, standardised and are economic also with smaller output power levels than reactor presently used.
61. Effects of ionising radiation are greatly overestimated by the public. Media has published shocking pictures and news about deformations and increases of cancer and other illnesses in the fallout area of Chernobyl in Soviet Union claimed to be caused by radiation.
62. An International Advisory Committee (IAC) consisting of some 200 experts from several world organisations (CEC, FAO, IAEA, ILO, UNSCEAR, WHO and WMO) and from affected Soviet Republics has studied the effects of radiation in people living in areas around Chernobyl outside the 30 km radius (which was evacuated immediately after the accident).
In 1990 about 9 000 people were examined in contaminated villages and in control villages having no fallout. In addition medical statistics of the areas were surveyed. The main conclusions of IAC are (The International Chernobyl Project, May 1991):
"- The official data that are examined did not indicate a marked increase in the incidence of leukaemia or cancers.
- No statistically significant evidence was found of an increase in incidence of foetal anomalies as a result of radiation exposure.
- There were ... no health disorders that could be attributed directly to radiation exposure.
- Immune systems do not appear to have been significantly affected by the accident.
- The children who were examined were found to be generally healthy.
- There were significant non-radiation related health disorders in the (adult) populations of both surveyed contaminated and surveyed control settlements".
About 200 000 people still live in the villages, which have been ordered to be evacuated due to the too high radiation dose they are expected to collect during their life time. Because relocation has not happened, people have many important psychological problems of anxiety and stress. IAC makes it clear that the relocation limit, a life time dose over 350 millisieverts, is too low for political reasons. Actually the life-time dose of an average Finn is 420 millisieverts mainly due to higher natural radon exposure.
IAC concludes in its Chernobyl report, that on the basis of the doses estimated, future increases of cancers or hereditary effects also would be difficult to discern even with large long term epidemiological studies. Possible cases will disappear among the large variations of naturally appearing cases. Extra cancer cases due to radiation have been detected in Japan where the number of survivors of the atomic bombs and their doses were high enough. But even in Japan no statistically significant hereditary effects have been found. The dangers of radiation are clearly overestimated by many.
63. It is often claimed that nuclear waste problems are not yet solved. However, storing methods and repositories have been studied and tested and are available when they are needed. The problems are more political than technical. People are afraid of ionising radiation and resist the construction of storages.
Sweden had advanced the farthest. A repository for low and intermediate level nuclear waste has been constructed in the bedrock near Forsmark nuclear power plant. A similar repository is under construction in Finland. It has been found that in Gambia in Africa, where a natural reactor has been in operation 1 800 billion years ago, practically all the nuclear material is still in the original place.
BEHAVIOURAL AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE SOCIETY
64. Changes in the behaviour of people can markedly decrease energy use and hence, decrease carbon emissions. Substitution of transportation by telecommunication offers large potential savings. Businessmen, researchers etc. should learn to use video conferences instead of travelling.
65. Because transportation is one of the main man-made carbon dioxide sources, more efficient use of transportation systems decreases emissions directly. Public policy should encourage the use of public transportation when available, car pooling etc. Communities must be planned so that unnecessary traffic can be avoided.
66. Carbon dioxide taxes as suggested by the Parliamentary Assembly are useful in encouraging for energy saving behaviour.
67. As mentioned earlier, reforestation can help to limit carbon dioxide emissions significantly. People in every country should be educated and encouraged to take care of forests. Finland is a good example in this respect. Farmers cutting their forests are requested to take care that new trees will grow after the cutting. Saplings must be planted, or if applicable, some big trees must be left uncut for seeding new plants. This way the forests of Finland have increased their growth and absorb every year about half of the carbon dioxide emissions due to fossil fuels used in Finland. At the same time forests have provided growing amount of raw material for forest industry.
CONCLUSIONS
68. Experts agree that the greenhouse effect or climate change is the most difficult environmental problem facing the earth. The predicted temperature rise and phenomena connected with it have far reaching consequences to mankind and to nature. The threat posed by climate change is:
- global: concerns the whole planet;
- unparalleled in modern times;
- urgent: requires swift action.
69. The challenge facing the nations is of political and economic character as well as technological and scientific. The technologies needed to reduce and stabilise the human impact on global warming are available now or will exist soon when research and development work has been finished. So is the human potential for developing new strategies to adapt community life to changes in the physical environment and its socio-economic consequences.
The main problems are:
- lack of sufficient information among policy makers and the public;
- economical: fears of short term costs;
- technological: fears of necessary technical solutions;
- obstacles to harmonious international co-operation.
70. It is of paramount importance that regulatory measures taken in one country or region are not offset by greenhouse emissions in other parts of the world. It is equally important that because of these measures; world trade competition is not distorted, and no new trade barriers are built.
71. The absence of information and of definite answers to economic and technological concerns, as well as some scientific uncertainties and controversies, explain why the reaction of the policy makers to climate change has so far been slow and timid.
72. Given the complex relationships between greenhouse gases/ climate/nature/technology/economy it is an absolute necessity that policy makers obtain continuously the best and newest available information. This report is a modest contribution to the raising of awareness that is much needed.
REFERENCES
1. Report on Climate Change; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change; WMO, UNEP, June 1990
2. Key issues papers; Senior Expert Symposium on Electricity and the Environment, Helsinki, May 1991; IAEA Vienna, 1991
3. Energy and environment 1991; American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers Inc. Atlanta Georgia United States of America, 1991
4. Energy for Europe; Report to Nordic Council's Conference on Energy, October 1991; Nordic Council 1991
5. Confronting Climate Change, Strategies for Energy Research and Development; National Academy Press, Washington DC, 1990
6. Coping with global environmental change; the role of science and democracy; and Scientific Conference, Ottawa, June 1990; Strasbourg 1991, Parliamentary Assembly
7. Report on renewable energy sources and solar hydrogen; Doc. 6456, Parliamentary Assembly, Council of Europe, June 1991
8. EP Statistical Review of World Energy; The British Petroleum Company 1989
9. Driving forces; Motor Vehicle Trends and their Implications for Global Warming; World Resources Institute, December 1990
10. Minding the Carbon Store; World Resources Institute, January 1991
11. The International Chernobyl Project, Report by an International Advisory Committee; IAEA Vienna 1991.
Reporting committee: Committee on Science and Technology.
Budgetary implications for the Assembly: None.
Reference: Order No. 458 (1991).
Draft resolution: Adopted by the committee on 15 January 1992 by 13 votes for, 4 against and 1 abstention.
Members of the committee: Mr Bassinet (Chairman), Lord Rodney, Mr Aarts (Vice-Chairmen), Mrs Arnold, MM. Atasever, Berger, Bohl (Alternate: Birraux), de Bondt, Borderas (Alternate: Palacios), Brito, Fulvio Caccia, Dees, Dimmer, Mrs Falcucci, MM. Fourré, Guizzi, Olof Johansson, Kalos, Kitt (Alternate: Fahey), Albrecht Konecny, Koulouris (Alternate: Pahtas), Lambie, Lenzer, Lopez Valdivielso, Lotz, Martino, Meszaros, Moreira, Mrs Nybakk, MM. Portelli, Probst, Mrs Ragnarsdottir, MM. Schädler, Schmid (Alternate: Pawkowicz), Sedlak, Seeuws, Svensson (Alternate: Lars Gustafsson), Donald Thompson, Tiuri, N ... (Alternate: Scheer).
N.B.: The names of the members who attended the meeting are underlined.
Secretaries to the committee: MM. Perin and Ary.