Follow-up to the Mediterranean Conference on Population, Migration and Development (Palma de Mallorca, 15-17 October 1996)

Report (1)

Doc. 7815

30 April 1997

Rapporteur: Mrs Ana GUIRADO, Spain, Socialist Group)

Summary

This report gives an account of the Mediterranean Conference on Population, Migration and Development held in Palma de Mallorca on 15-17 October 1996. Organised by the Council of Europe's European Population Committee, the Conference was the result of a Parliamentary Assembly initiative motivated by the need to find solutions to the daunting problems of demographic imbalance, disparities in social and economic development, and resulting migration pressures that characterise the Mediterranean region. The Conference was attended by the Assembly's Sub-Committee on Demography. The report underlines the importance for the Council of Europe of framing a comprehensive strategy for the Mediterranean region, since developments there, no less than those in central and eastern Europe, will be decisive for Europe's future.

I. Draft recommendation [link to adopted text]

1.Although the sheer numbers of migrants arriving on the northern shores of the Mediterranean have abated since the peak year 1992 as a result of the restrictions imposed by most European states, the pressure on Europe's southern frontiers is unlikely to subside. This pressure is increasingly exerted through illegal channels, often with tragic results.

2.Migration pressures stem in large part from the widening gap in material welfare between the countries south and north of the Mediterranean. The gap must therefore be reduced by contributing more to the long-term economic development of the countries on the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean and beyond.

3.Reducing the welfare gap also means slowing population growth in the countries along the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean. According to the predictions, while in 1995 there was a population gap of some 44 million between the countries bordering on the northern Mediterranean and those on its southern and eastern rims, the difference will have increased to 205 million by the year 2025.

4.However, economic and demographic imbalances are not the only factors behind migration pressures. Among other reasons why migrants and refugees leave their countries are political instability, social disparities, religious conflict, the degradation of the environment, deteriorating health care, and human rights abuses.

5.The Assembly welcomes the Euro-Mediterranean partnership project initiated by the Barcelona Declaration of November 1995, and expresses the hope that a charter for peace and stability between the European Union and its Mediterranean partners, designed to establish mechanisms for permanent dialogue, conflict prevention and crisis management and bring about a climate of trust, can be adopted as soon as possible.

6.The Assembly recalls its Recommendations 1148 (1991), 1249 (1994), and 1306 (1996) and stresses the importance, for the sake of the stability and well-being of Europe as a whole, of developing a comprehensive Council of Europe strategy for the Mediterranean Basin.

7.The Assembly welcomes the holding of the Mediterranean Conference on Population, Migration and Development in Palma de Mallorca from 15 to 17 October 1996 and urges the Committee of Ministers to take full account of the Conference proposals in planning the Council of Europe's future work in this area.

8.In particular, the Assembly recommends that the Committee of Ministers:

  1. support the process of institutional concertation between Europe and non-member states in the Mediterranean Basin, notably inviting the latter to take part as observers in the work of the Council of Europe;

  2. contribute to the Barcelona process in the Council of Europe's fields of competence;

  3. support the creation of an observatory to furnish comparative statistical data on demographic and socio-economic trends and migration flows in the Mediterranean region;

  4. facilitate the strengthening of links between the many partners concerned at local, national and international levels;

  5. promote cultural exchanges between Europe and non-member states in the Mediterranean Basin, notably through the creation of cultural experience and training centres for young people, with a view to improving mutual understanding and combating racism and xenophobia;

  6. invite the member states:

  1. to redouble their efforts to promote the social, economic and technical development of the countries on the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean, in particular with a view to creating employment;

  2. to support reforms in the countries of the South and East of the Mediterranean in the areas of education, training, health, the condition of women, the environment and human rights;

  3. to encourage the creation of direct links between the local and regional authorities on both sides of the Mediterranean with a view to the discussion of common problems.

II. Explanatory memorandum by Mrs GUIRADO

Contents

1. INTRODUCTION

2. TRANS-MEDITERRANEAN MIGRATION TRENDS

3. THE FACTORS BEHIND MIGRATION PRESSURES

i.The "welfare gap"

ii.Demographic push factors

iii.Labour demand in receiving countries

iv.Factors of instability

4. THE CONFERENCE PROPOSALS

5. CONCLUDING REMARKS

1. Introduction

1. It was the Parliamentary Assembly that, in its Recommendation 1148 (1991) on Europe of 1992 and migration policies, first called on the Council of Europe's Committee of Ministers to organise an international conference on demographic problems in the Mediterranean basin.

2. In proposing to hold the Conference, the Assembly was motivated by the need to find solutions to the daunting problems of demographic imbalance, disparities in economic development, and resulting migration pressures that are characteristic of the Mediterranean area. These problems, to which a whole host of others _ not least political, social and environmental _ are related, have an impact far beyond the countries surrounding the Mediterranean and will deeply affect the future of the African and European continents as a whole.

3. The Mediterranean Conference on Population, Migration and Development was held in Palma de Mallorca on 15-17 October 1996. It was organised by the European Population Committee and the Spanish and Balearic authorities. The conference brought together some 230 participants from both sides of the Mediterranean: distinguished demographers, economists and sociologists as contributing experts, as well as parliamentarians, representatives of local and regional government, officials and journalists. The Parliamentary Assembly was represented by its Sub-Committee on Demography. Many of the approximately 800 pages of documentation were of a very high standard. The discussion was extremely lively and thought-provoking and gave rise to a number of recommendations, very few of which, unfortunately, appear to have been taken up so far by the Committee of Ministers.

4. This report is intended to focus renewed attention on the Conference recommendations lest they be lost sight of as a result of the Council of Europe's understandable preoccupation with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. For what happens in the continent's southern regions and beyond will be just as decisive, in the long run, for Europe's future. Indeed, what is needed is a coherent Council of Europe strategy for the Mediterranean Basin.

2. Trans-mediterranean migration trends

5. The Mediterranean has long been the focal point for migration, exchange and settlement. Until quite recently it was the centre of the biggest migration flows in and to Europe. Unfortunately, the Conference did not provide a complete or accurate statistical picture of such movements, for the simple reason that the data are inadequate. This is somewhat surprising given the political importance of immigration questions and should be remedied.

6. Nevertheless, the main trends are well known. The Maghreb countries and Turkey had already become major suppliers of labour to the European Continent when the 1972-73 oil crisis brought labour immigration to a virtual halt. Thereafter, immigration expanded again on account of family reunion, marriage and asylum-seeking.

7. The destination of these migrants was first the industrial heartland of Europe, like earlier waves of migrants from the southern European countries, but then increasingly these southern European countries themselves which thus became "new immigration countries" as a result not only of emigration from North Africa but also of return migration from northern and western Europe.

8. Although the numbers of migrants arriving on the northern shores of the Mediterranean and elsewhere have again abated as a result of the restrictions imposed by most European States, especially after the peak year 1992, the pressure is unlikely to subside, and is increasingly exerted through illegal channels. What factors lie behind this pressure?

3. The factors behind migration pressures

i.The "welfare gap"

9. Migration pressures stem in large part, as seems well documented in the papers submitted to the Conference, from the perceived gap in material welfare between the countries south and north of the Mediterranean, as measured by gross domestic product per head. The welfare gap across the Mediterranean has widened alarmingly. This phenomenon is linked to the still high fertility rates and young age structures as well as to the economic stagnation, inflation, poverty, unemployment, and poor prospects for job creation characteristic of the Arab countries and Turkey.

10. The lesson seems clear: we need to reduce the gap by contributing more to the long-term economic development of the countries on the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean and beyond. This is a message which the Parliamentary Assembly has stressed again and again, for example, in the follow-up to the International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo in September 1994. The Assembly then called on the member States to redouble their efforts to achieve the spending target of 0.7% of their GNP on public aid for the developing countries; increase substantially the proportion devoted to the social sector and population programmes; and make a significant contribution to the financing of the Cairo Programme of Action. Indeed, it is time to review the commitments that were made in Cairo.

11. This is the more important since the Palma Conference raised questions about the consequences of the Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area to be established by the year 2010 and the size of the financial transfers planned as follow-up to the Barcelona Declaration of November 1995, endorsed by the foreign ministers of the European Union and Mediterranean States. For the developing countries concerned, the establishment of a Free Trade Area would initially cause a loss of tariff revenues and doubtless unemployment as a result of adjustments in patterns of production. In the initial phase it seems that emigration would actually increase, to fall in the long term when the benefits of free trade such as greater competitivity and attraction of foreign investment began to take effect.

12. As for the financial transfers amounting to 4685 million ECU planned under the European Union's MEDA programme for the period 1995-1999, Conference participants saw this as inadequate to say the least, even if supplemented by loans from the European Investment Bank and contributions by the member States. In 1995, 650 million ECU went to finance structural adjustment projects in Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, public works in Egypt and a reconstruction programme in Lebanon, but again the needs are much greater.

ii. Demographic push factors

13. There can be no doubt that the population imbalance between the north and south of the Mediterranean is set to increase. The predictions are alarming: the combined population of the North African countries, Israel, Syria, Turkey and Lebanon is projected to increase from 246 million in 1995 to 405 million in 2025, while that of the Southern European countries and France will fall from 202 million to 201 million. The population gap will thus have grown from some 44 million in 1995 to 205 million by the year 2025 (United Nations, World Population Prospects, 1994 revision: medium variant).

14. The Palma Conference discussions dispelled the common misperception that a high rate of natural population increase is the single most important cause of high migration. In fact it is the countries with the lower rates of natural increase which are the producers of most emigrants.

15. Nevertheless, because unbridled demographic growth undermines the benefits of economic development, engendering unemployment and higher public spending, the objective of reducing the welfare gap across the Mediterranean also requires a slowing of population growth in the countries along its southern and eastern shores, even if the benefits accrue only in the long-term.

16. In this context, discussion at the Conference underlined the importance of extending female education and also that of the cultural influence of North African migrants in Europe in the dissemination and acceptance of reduced fertility norms among women in their countries of origin. For its part, the Assembly has repeatedly insisted on the need to enhance the status, education and health of women; all population policy must be based on freedom of choice and information.

17. Although analysis of demographic trends in the countries of the southern and eastern Mediterranean shows that many of them are moving through the so-called "demographic transition" to low fertility and mortality resulting from relative improvements in health, education, and other social, economic and cultural factors, there is nevertheless still a marked difference in the total fertility rate (births per woman) as between these countries and those on the northern rim. For example, according to United Nations estimates for the period 1990-95, the figure is 3.1 for Lebanon and Tunisia, 3.3 for Turkey, 3.8 for Algeria and Morocco, 3.9 for Egypt, and 6.4 for Libya. In contrast, it is 1.2 for Spain, 1.3 for Italy, 1.4 for Greece, 1.5 for Slovenia (and Portugal), and 1.7 for France. For Europe as a whole it is 1.6, for Northern Africa 4.2.

18. There are also critical differences in the age structure of the population. In Europe as a whole 20 per cent of the population are aged under 15 and 14 per cent of the population over 65, while in the Northern African countries the figures are 39 per cent and 4 per cent respectively. This implies not only a high population momentum (population continues to grow fairly fast even after fertility declines), but also that relatively large age cohorts will continue to enter the labour market in the future.

iii.    Labour demand in receiving countries

19. It is generally recognised that Europe as a whole is not now in a position to absorb more immigrants onto the labour market, even though there may be a residue of jobs that nationals refuse to do. Nevertheless, it is sometimes said that the ageing structure of Europe's population will provide an opportunity for immigrants to fill the gaps left by the retirement of the baby boom generations around the years 2006 to 2010, especially if the European economies start to grow more vigorously. This view was challenged and gave rise to much debate at the Palma Conference.

20. The challenge to the view that Europe might increase its absorption capacity in years to come was based on projections of manpower trends from 1990 to 2020 which showed that cases of a decrease in the size of the labour force would be very limited and confined to only a few countries. The expected high level of labour supply was based mainly on a very strong increase in female activity rates. However, it was pointed out that such predictions were extremely imprecise because so many variables could intervene: for example productivity, retirement age or, indeed, female participation rates. Moreover, it was incontestable that Europe's working population was ageing.

21. In this context, it should be recalled that the Assembly has endorsed the view expressed by the European Ministers responsible for Migration Affairs at their 6th Conference held in Warsaw in 1996, that some allowance should be made for short-term migration through the conclusion of bilateral agreements.

iv.    Factors of instability

22. Economic and demographic imbalances are not the only factors behind migration pressures. Among other reasons why migrants and refugees leave their countries are political instability, social disparities, religious conflict, the degradation of the environment, deteriorating health care, and human rights abuses. It is right that the Parliamentary Assembly should monitor political developments in the Mediterranean area closely and make its contribution to bringing about peace, stability and respect for human rights. In the recent past it has held a Parliamentary Hearing on the situation of Algerian women and sought to contribute to confidence-building in Albania, Cyprus, the Middle East, Turkey, and the countries of the former Yugoslavia. From the point of view of the impact of that tragic conflict on migration and refugee policies, we need to examine closely what sort of strategy to adopt in situations of mass exodus so as to ensure that there is a fair sharing of responsibilities.

23. It is regrettable that a charter for peace and stability between the European Union and its Mediterranean partners, designed to establish mechanisms for permanent dialogue, conflict prevention and crisis management and bring about a climate of trust, could not be adopted during the Euro-Mediterranean Conference in Malta on 15-16 April 1997. It is to be hoped that such a charter can be adopted as soon as possible.

24. Much emphasis was placed at the Palma Conference on the need to promote regional and local co-operation, with the involvement not only of public authorities but also of non-governmental organisations. One objective of such co-operation would be the co-ordination of financial assistance from public and international bodies such as the European Union and the Council of Europe's Social Development Fund as well as the considerable funds remitted by migrants from abroad. In this context, much hope was placed in the ability and willingness of local entrepreneurs to mount businesses that would help create employment.

4. The Conference proposals

25. The Conference proposals identified by the General Rapporteur, Mr Jean-Claude Chasteland, fell into four broad categories: those aimed at strengthening institutional co-operation across the Mediterranean, those designed to improve our knowledge of data and trends, those needed to break away from the undesirable patterns of development characteristic of the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries, and finally, those aimed at social, economic and political reforms in these countries.

26. Among the first category were the following:

27. The main proposals in the second category, designed to improve our knowledge of data and trends, were the establishment of an observatory or foundation, based on a network of correspondents on the OECD-SOPEMI model, to collect comparative statistical data about demographic, migration, social and economic trends in the Mediterranean region. There was also a call to improve the coverage and comparability of national migration statistics generally.

28. The third category of proposals covered mainly development aid policies:

29. Fourth, proposals were made for reforms in the countries of the southern and eastern Mediterranean:

The Parliamentary Assembly could certainly help here by promoting inter-Parliamentary co-operation.

5. Concluding remarks

30. Strengthened co-operation and co-ordination between countries, regions, international organisations and institutions will be essential for the successful management of the growing migration pressures, demographic imbalances and economic disparities in the Mediterranean basin. Co-operation and co-ordination will also be essential in the search for political stability and in pursuing the ideals and values which the Council of Europe statute enshrines: pluralist democracy, the rule of law, and respect for human rights.

31. The Council of Europe, although inevitably preoccupied by the problems facing the countries of Central and Eastern Europe since the events of 1989, should not neglect developments in the Mediterranean region and further south, for they are no less important for the stability and well-being of Europe as a whole. This is certainly a fundamental reason why the Parliamentary Assembly proposed holding the Mediterranean Conference on Migration, Population and Development. The Assembly and the Committee of Ministers must now take account of its results and proposals in promoting a coherent Council of Europe strategy for the Mediterranean Basin.

Reporting committee: Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography.

Budgetary implications for the Assembly: none.

Origin: Doc. 7691 and Reference No. 2142 of 27 January 1997.

Draft recommendation unanimously adopted by the committee on 24 April 1997.

Members of the committee: Mrs Aguiar (Chairperson), MM. Iwinski, Junghanns, Korakas (Vice-Chairmen), A�ba (Alternate: Sungur), Mrs Aguilar, MM. Akselsen, Amoruso (Alternate: Brunetti), Andres, �rnason, Mrs Arnold, MM. Beaufays, Billing, Bogomolov (Alternate: Volodin), van den Bos, Branger, Mrs Brasseur, MM. Brennan, Caceres, Cardona, Christodoulides, Chyzh, Clerfayt, Din�er, Ehrmann, Mrs Fehr, MM. Filimonov, Fuhrmann (Alternate: Mrs Karlsson), Mrs Garajov�, MM. Godo, Gotzev, Gross, Sir John Hunt, Mrs Johansson, MM. Kalus, Karas, Lord Kirkhill (Alternate: Lord Dundee), Mr Kukk, Mrs Kusnere, MM. Laakso, Lauricella, Laurinkus, Lazarescu, Leitner, Liapis, Loutfi, Lu�s, M�sz�ros, Micheloyiannis, Nogalo (Alternate: Mrs Busic), Mrs Plechat�, MM. Rakhansky, Sincai, Skolc, Solonari, Mrs Soutendijk-van Appeldoorn, Mr Vangelov.

N.B.The names of those members present at the meeting are printed in italics.

Secretaries of the committee: Mr Newman, Mr Sich and Mrs Nachilo.

[1] by the Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography