Demographic change and sustainable development

3 June 1994

Doc. 7089

1403-26/5/94-2-E

REPORT

on demographic change and sustainable development

(Rapporteur: Mrs ROBERT,

Switzerland, Liberal, Democratic and Reformers Group)

Summary

This report highlights the close linkage between population change, economic and social development and environment. Indeed, the developing countries' population growth and legitimate aspiration to a higher standard of living, in conjunction with the consumer habits, lifestyles and population ageing patterns of European societies, raise major challenges for today's political leaders.

Demographic concerns must therefore be an integral part of our member states' economic and social policies, and of their development assistance programmes. These programmes should focus on education and health while generally furthering the effort to uphold pluralist democracy and human rights, including equality between the sexes.

I. Draft recommendation

1. The Assembly emphasises that demographic change is a global phenomenon characterised by interdependence and that population trends, social policies, environmental change and the patterns of production, consumption and international trade are closely interlinked.

2. The present situation is that despite a slackening world population growth rate, the absolute figure will continue to increase over the next three decades to a level of between 7 and 12 thousand million. Developing countries will account for over 95% of the increase.

3. Meanwhile we are confronted with a steady deterioration of our environment. Nevertheless, the population factor, although significant, is only partly responsible because other factors, notably patterns of production and consumption and life-styles, are also at work.

4. The Assembly points out, for example, that in per capita terms the air pollution caused by the inhabitants of industrialised countries is five times greater than in developing countries. Grave ecological problems are therefore predictable as the developing countries realise their legitimate aspiration to a standard of living on a par with industrialised countries.

5. In this context, the Assembly reiterates the principle of common but differentiated responsibility acknowledged at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Rio de Janeiro, June 1992), which pledges countries of rapid demographic expansion to reduce the growth rate and industrialised countries to reduce the negative impact of their industrial activities and to use their resources in a rational manner.

6. The Assembly affirms that population policy must in all cases be founded on freedom of choice as regards reproduction, a freedom which can only be exercised under social and political conditions ensuring respect for human dignity, equality between the sexes and participatory pluralist democracy. This calls for adequate measures in such fields as information, education and health.

7. The Assembly also emphasises the need to reconcile individual aspirations with the contemporary forms of social organisation characteristic of European societies so as to ensure the greatest possible harmony between societal imperatives and personal wishes. Likewise, having regard to the ageing of Europe's population, every effort must be made to establish equitable inter-generational relations.

8. The Assembly accordingly recommends that the Committee of Ministers:

i. organise a thematic campaign centred on the situation of women in Europe and worldwide, as a major step in preparations for the 4th United Nations Conference on Women to be held in Beijing in September 1995;

ii. build up the resources of the North-South Centre in Lisbon so that it is better able to impress on public opinion the universality and interdependence of demographic issues;

iii. draw up a charter of demographic rights of the individual, laying down ethical foundations and fundamental principles defining and governing the application of these rights;

iv. invite member states:

a. to give demographic trends more prominence in framing their social and economic policies and development assistance programmes;

b. to step up their co-operation on matters of population and sustainable development in the Council of Europe framework;

c. to increase the proportion of their development aid devoted to improving the level of education and health, including the expansion of family-planning services, and the status and self-determination of women;

d. to take steps as quickly as possible to implement the recommendations of the Rio Declaration on environment and development;

e. to favour cleaner technologies conducive to sustainable development for the world and for future generations.

II. Draft order

1. The Assembly refers to Recommendation ... (1994) on demographic change and sustainable development.

2. It emphasises the importance and the multidimensional nature of demographic factors and their impact on socio-economic development and the environment;

3. An international conference on population and development is to be held in Cairo from 5 to 13 September 1994. Wishing to monitor the development of these problems closely, the Assembly invites the Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography:

i. to submit a report to it on the conclusions of the above-mentioned conference on population and development, together with specific recommendations on how the Council of Europe can follow up the work of this conference;

ii. to monitor, in co-operation notably with the Committee on Economic Affairs and Development, the Social, Health and Family Affairs Committee, and the Committee on the Environment, Regional Planning and Local Authorities, issues of demographic change as related to sustainable development;

iii. to organise, with the participation of national parliaments, the European Parliament, OECD and other European and international organisations concerned, a first interparliamentary conference on demography and sustainable development.

III. Explanatory memorandum

by Mrs ROBERT

1. Preamble

In tackling demographic change in the context of sustainable development,1 this report raises two fundamental issues which are at the heart of parliamentary action:

a. how can policies defined in a short-term context take account, in an adequate, responsible fashion, of new trends as significant as demographic and environmental parameters, the impact of which is visible only over the long term?

b. how can parliamentary action help to resolve problems related to national and international demographic trends: rapid population growth, migration, creation of mega-cities, ageing of the population, etc., while respecting fundamental human rights and supporting a sustainable economic and environmental policy?

2. The international situation: macro-prospects

The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Rio de Janeiro, June 1992), following on from numerous other intergovernmental conferences and meetings of experts, drew the international community's attention to the close relationship between demographic trends, economic characteristics (production — consumption — technology) and changes in the environment at both local and world level. At political level, growing awareness of the global nature of development is a very recent trend, and this probably explains why no policy exists at either national or international level integrating demographic, social, economic, technological trends and behavioural parameters in order to improve living conditions in qualitative terms. As we approach the 3rd International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 5-13 September 1994), we need to define clearly the new challenges posed by demographic development at world and European level. We also need to define how Council of Europe parliamentarians can help to find solutions to these problems.

1. World demographic data

As we approach the twenty-first century, the world demographic situation is characterised simultaneously by a downturn in the rate of population growth and by substantial population growth in absolute terms (approximately 900 million more every year: see Appendix I). In view of the tremendous inertia of demographic development, the world population will continue to grow, rising to between 7 and 12 thousand million during the next three decades (see Appendix II).

However, the world population growth curve conceals significant variations between the regions of the globe, and sometimes even between countries within a given region. Since 1975 the world population growth rate has been in the region of 1,7% per annum. Seen from a regional perspective, this rate varies considerably. The population of the industrialised countries will remain more or less stable, and more than 95% of the growth will occur in the developing countries, and particularly in those countries now classified as "least advanced" (see Appendix III).

Annual population growth is currently running at a rate of 3% in Africa, 1.9% in Asia, 2% in Latin America, approximately 1% in the United States of America and former USSR and 0,4% in Europe. Urbanisation is at 73% in the industrialised countries and at 34% in the developing countries. The growth of mega-cities with more than 10 million inhabitants is another extremely difficult problem to resolve in view of the multiple factors — demographic, economic and political — underlying the creation of these huge conurbations. In 1990 there were twenty cities with between 8,5 and 20 million inhabitants. By the year 2000, a mere six years hence, these cities will have populations of between 12 and 25 million (see Appendix IV). This form of urbanisation creates problems of employment, management and social harmony, not to mention problems related to the quality of the physical environment and health, for which there are no ready-made solutions.

As for international migration, it currently affects a relatively insignificant number of individuals, approximately 100 million, or barely 2% of the world population. This migration mainly affects the developing countries themselves, which are having to bear the burden of asylum seekers, persons seeking work and refugees for political, ecological or other reasons. Nevertheless, the worsening of environmental conditions, coupled with political instability and increasing poverty in certain parts of the world suggest that in the next twenty years the number of migrants will far surpass the current figure. Estimates varying between 200 million and 1 thousand million have been put forward.

2. The new challenges at world level

2.1. How can demographic dynamics be reconciled with the health of the biosphere and social progress?

This rapid, but highly heterogeneous, growth in the world population runs parallel to a degradation in the physical environment. This can be seen in the reduction in biological diversity, the growing scarcity of essential natural resources such as water and in pollution and other forms of temporary or irreversible deterioration of the environment on which human life and economic activity are based.

While different viewpoints exist as to the impact of world population trends on the environment, they usually arise because different methodologies have been applied or emphasis placed on a particular resource (wood, water, soil quality, etc.) or on a given aspect of environmental change (climate change, desertification, etc.). Nevertheless, researchers generally agree that the demographic factor is important, but that it invariably interacts with other factors (economic, technological, social and political) which modulate, reduce or exacerbate its influence (see bibliography: article by Léon Tabah).

The latest statistics give us a better understanding of the relative significance of demographic and eco-technological factors in the impact human activities have on the environment. For example, energy consumption for business purposes is shown to be 710 units for the developing countries, 2 520 units for the industrialised countries and only six units for the least advanced countries. In terms of per capita energy consumption, the difference between the industrialised countries and developing countries is even greater, namely 4 840 units for the first group and 550 for the second. Considered from the viewpoint of their environmental impact, the industrialised countries' consumption and technology are contributing to world pollution — measured as a percentage of greenhouse gas emissions — at a rate of 56,05% as against 43,95% for the developing countries. In per capita terms, the inhabitants of the industrialised world pollute the atmosphere five times more than the inhabitants of the developing countries, whereas in 1992 population density was twenty-two inhabitants per square kilometre in the industrialised countries and fifty-four inhabitants per square kilometre in the developing countries.

This selection of figures gives us an idea of the problems that will arise if the current demographic and economic trends are maintained and if the inhabitants of the developing countries begin to accede to living standards and lifestyles comparable to those of the industrialised countries. Precisely because of this legitimate aspiration for decent living conditions we are obliged to rethink the way in which our societies are organised and to review international relations on a global level. The above examples show that it is wrong, even dangerous, to base population policies on purely environmental considerations, and that although the environment must be considered when defining population policies, it must primarily be seen as the ultimate reference framework for human existence on Earth.

The Rio Conference recognised the principle of generalised, but differentiated, responsibility: whereas countries with high population growth must endeavour to reduce it, the industrialised countries, for their part, must concentrate on reducing the harmful impact of their industrial activities and their consumption on the environment and develop technologies and forms of production, consumption and international trade that preserve the quality of the environment. The prevalence of unemployment in the industrialised countries and the likelihood of increasing marginalisation and poverty throughout the world clearly demonstrate that the present form of development is incapable of reconciling qualitative objectives, environmental constraints and individual aspirations with the rationale of the present economic system. The solution to the major problems of the day does not lie in a choice between a clean, empty planet and a dirty, overpopulated one. There is a third way, which has yet to be tried, the different elements of which are lumped together under the notion of "sustainable development", and parliamentary action should be geared to promoting this third way so that living conditions on our planet can be ecologically viable, humane and harmonious and respect the diversity of civilisations while allowing all individuals scope for creativity.

2.2. How should women's rights regarding reproduction be respected?

In macro-demographic terms, the right of women to contraception is directly linked to the phenomenon of rapid population growth. The growth in the world population recorded since the 1950s is the result of substantial improvements in life expectancy in the great majority of countries, a development we can only applaud. Life expectancy rose from 66 to 75 in the industrialised countries between 1950 and 1990, and from 41 to 62 over the same period in the developing countries. The increase in life expectancy was therefore greater in the developing countries.

However, this growth was not accompanied by the economic development that is essential for changes in demographic dynamics, particularly reductions in fertility. There are several reasons for this. In the developing countries 25% of deaths concern the over-65s and 35% concern children under 5, whereas the corresponding percentages for the industrialised countries are 75% and 3% respectively. Then there are sociological reasons relating to the security of old age, the low level of education of women (see Appendix V), the low level of female participation in "modern" sectors of the economy, and the symbolic and material value attached to children. Finally, studies have shown that even in countries where the fertility rate is still relatively high, women have more children than they would like because of the lack of information, services and modern forms of contraception (see Appendix VI) enabling women and couples to achieve the family size they want.

It has now been acknowledged that the fertility issue should be approached from the angle of the fundamental rights of individuals, primarily of women, and of human development. In operational terms, it has also been widely accepted that the right way of proceeding is to integrate family planning services into basic health-care systems. Moreover, on a more general level, it has been accepted that women can exercise freedom of choice in reproductive matters only if the economic, social, cultural and political conditions are favourable to them. For this reason, the national development policies and development aid programmes which should be supported are those which emphasise education and basic health-care in a socio-political context of sexual equality and pluralist, participation-oriented democracy. Parliamentarians interested in demographic problems should therefore ensure that these elements are present in programmes to which they give their political backing. Conversely, programmes containing elements of coercion or restrictions on freedom of choice or access to contraception should be condemned and fought against as a dangerous denial of human rights.

It is currently estimated that some 400 million women in the developing countries are using modern means of contraception, that approximately 50 million practise birth control by other methods, and that up to 300 million women would like to practise birth control but do not have the means to do so. An estimated 50 million abortions take place each year, many of which occur in appalling conditions leading to the death of women. It is estimated that between 20% and 30% of women in the developing countries who wish to practise birth control do not have access to information, services and modern means of contraception.

2.3. How can we combat Aids effectively?

Although the Aids pandemic has not had a notable demographic impact, it has had an extremely important socio-political impact, and it represents a further obstacle to improvements in the quality of life and living standards in the developing countries. Epidemiological forecasts show that while the pandemic is gaining ground fast in Africa, Latin America and Asia, it is now spreading at a slower rate in the industrialised world.

A sustainable development strategy based on respect for human rights means that individuals must be able to make choices freely. Leaving aside the medical aspects, for which no solution exists at present, the Aids pandemic has shown that the situation of women and the dependence of various categories of individual on external powers (child prostitutes, women in many societies, the sick, etc.) represent major obstacles which undermine efforts to combat this disease. Accordingly, any information and awareness-raising strategy must concentrate primarily on removing sociological and/or legislative obstacles which subject individuals to risks that they cannot avoid. Political responsibility therefore plays a considerable role in the struggle against Aids.

In order to help to create conditions for sustainable development, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe should support the aforementioned priorities and actions in all areas of work and as an integral part of co-operation with the member states and intergovernmental organisations.

3. European level

1. General demographic characteristics

Generally speaking, the composition of the European population is more homogeneous than that of any other region of the world. Nevertheless, marked intra-regional differences exist which should be given due attention because they reflect differences in personal choices and scope for satisfying personal aspirations. Indeed, these differences reflect significant disparities in the areas of social protection, quality of life, environmental conditions and the health of the population (see bibliography: H. Moors and R. Palomba Eds).

The European demographic situation is characterised by the following trends. First of all, we can observe significant changes in reproductive behaviour: attitudes and aspirations have shifted considerably over recent decades, reflecting a determination on the part of individuals and couples to live differently, to have a satisfying professional life and a personal life which is more individualistic in the sense that individuals are emancipating themselves from traditional family and couple models. First-time marriages are increasingly rare, divorce has been on the increase in most countries since 1960, and especially since 1970, and families from more than one marriage are increasingly commonplace. In addition, women are increasingly active on the labour market while continuing at the same time to play their time-honoured role in the home. Because of their double burden, women are not as competitive as men on the labour market, a situation which is exacerbated by the considerable disparities between the sexes when it comes to salaries, even within the same socio-occupational category, and by the fact that promotion prospects are far more limited for women than men.

All the European countries have family-centred population policies which vary in terms of methods used but essentially pursue the same aims, namely to ensure the well-being of the family, encourage sufficient fertility and provide equal opportunities for all. Some policies also aim to place married and unmarried persons on an equal footing when it comes to benefits.

A second general characteristic of the European population is the growing percentage of over-65s, representing a new challenge in societies where unemployment is rising fast and the costs associated with public health-care systems have increased dramatically (see Appendix VII). In some countries, health-care spending on the last six months of life account for more than 60% of total national expenditure. This raises the problem of equity between generations and of how to achieve a fair distribution of investment between prevention and cure, or even how the unrelenting therapeutic approach can be justified in ethical terms.

In view of the increase in the proportion of over-65s it is vital that we re-examine our attitudes, values and social and economic forms of organisation so as to offer all sections of the population the possibility of a productive, enriched and healthy life and to provide each generation with opportunities for development and self-fulfilment equal to those available to other generations. This will require a political approach to problems which centres more closely on the life cycle and on the optimal satisfaction of people's needs at each stage. The new problems associated with the financing of pensions and health-care insurance (to quote just two examples) must be considered from a global as well as a local angle: from a global angle because the major development trends are the same, and the problems Europe is facing today will soon be faced by the developing countries; from a local angle because solutions can only result from a participatory, democratic process impregnated with each nation's cultural specificity and history.

Finally, Europe is also experiencing large-scale migratory movements, which are significant in the European context but are far from representing the lion's share of international migratory movements, as some claim. Against a background of closed borders and a growing refusal to accept migrants, we need to ask ourselves what role migration can play in creating the political, economic, ecological and human conditions for sustainable world development, of which one of the keys is harmony between nations. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe should approach this issue not merely from the viewpoint of respect for individual rights but as one of the international dimensions of the sustainability of a political, economic and social Europe.

2. The new challenges facing Europe

2.1. How can individual aspirations be reconciled with current forms of social and labour organisation?

The greater diversity of aspirations in relation to the more limited behavioural models of the past forces us to rethink not just the forms of labour organisation we use but also the standards and structures through which individuals form part of larger units: the family, the state, the nation, etc. We need a better knowledge of society in order to conduct this debate at a deeper level and identify developments likely to promote the most harmonious balance possible between desiderata and constraints.

2.2. How can a society consisting of over-65s function harmoniously?

The ageing of the population structure should not be seen as a disaster but more in terms of a challenge to our ability to establish balanced relationships between generations and to develop the economy in such a way as to provide productive labour to all individuals wishing and able to work.

2.3. How can the disparity in living conditions between the countries in transition and western Europe be reduced?

A number of indicators and studies highlight the considerable difference between the two groups of countries, particularly in the environmental and health-care fields. Equally significant differences exist in the area of reproduction-related health-care for women. In the countries in transition to a market economy maternal mortality is around sixty-six per thousand, whereas it is around eight per thousand in the other European countries. This high mortality is linked to the poor standards of, and/or lack of access to, family planning and maternity care services. Whereas in the European Union approximately 75% of women use contraception, the corresponding figure for central and eastern Europe is only 32%. In most former Soviet republics it is less than 25%; hence the massive use of abortion as a method of birth control. Finally, with regard to the particular situation of women, it should be noted that in Europe only 10% of parliamentarians are women, compared with an average of 11% in developing countries. In each case, this is clearly not enough, and in addition to the measures proposed above, it is vital to create conditions for greater participation by women in political decision-making.

4. Proposals

In order to meet the challenges posed by changes in the world population and to examine parliamentary responsibility for the issues raised, be they old or new, the following proposals should be set in a far broader context that the limited field of "demography".

Three fundamental realities are evident: first, the international, interdependent nature of demographic development, which can no longer be isolated from social changes and the damage inflicted on our environment; second, the impact of the scale of demographic phenomena which, above a certain threshold, produce qualitative changes whose impact is felt in all spheres of human life and third, the non-demographic aim of population policies, which must essentially be designed to improve the quality of life of individuals, to provide them with greater physical and political security and finally to increase the options open to individuals and nations, as part of a healthy, responsible management strategy for the biosphere.

Moreover, the following proposals are completely in line with the Council of Europe's mandate, of which they represent a specific application designed to:

—sa feguard and enhance the rights of individuals;—

—sa feguard and reinforce pluralist democracies;—

—pr omote a better status for women, sexual equality and participation by women in political decision-making and in all other fields;—

—id entify, through co-operation, appropriate solutions to the major issues of our times.1.

1. Informing, educating and raising the awareness of the European population

Any social project resulting from a notion of individual and collective responsibility must be based on an adequate knowledge of the problems involved and an accurate assessment of the issues at stake. In view of the highly complex, global nature of interactions between demographic dynamics, consumption levels, the means of economic production and technological choices, the combined impact of which affects global macro-balances, it is essential to base any action on solid scientific information. The Council of Europe should be doing as much as possible to inform, educate and raise the awareness of European citizens on these matters so that they gain a better understanding of the global issues at stake, learn to appreciate the value of solidarity and change their behaviour patterns if necessary.

Three channels should be used on a priority basis to disseminate information and reach the different target groups:

a. the Council of Europe's Lisbon-based North-South Centre, with its documentation centre, should step up its co-operation and exchange of information with the media, NGOs, associations and individuals working in the areas of education. sustainable development, demography, public health, including family planning, and the promotion of the status of women.

b. the Council of Europe itself, through its institutional circuits and channels, should raise awareness among all its bodies and member states. This campaign should pursue three main objectives: (1) give more thorough consideration to problems relating to the interdependence of lifestyles and patterns of international trade, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, sustainable development, defined in 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development as "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs"; (2) take account of very long-term issues (demographic development, environmental conservation, etc.) in political decision-making, which inevitably takes place from a short-term perspective; and (3) raise awareness of the fundamentally inter-sectoral nature of demographic problems and encourage parliamentarians to integrate demographic trends into the social and economic policies that they help create. This objective also applies to development aid policies;

c. organise a theme-based campaign focusing on the situation of women in Europe and the world, which will comprise the following essential elements: the status of women; obstacles to the recognition and exercise of women's rights, particularly their right to make reproductive choices; the means by which women's participation in decision-making and power mechanisms can be improved. To ensure that it has maximum impact, this campaign should be launched as part of preparations for the European Conference on Women, which is scheduled to take place in Vienna a few months hence, and will form an important part of preparations for the international conference scheduled to take place in 1995 in Beijing.

2. Setting up an institutional mechanism for co-operation between the Council of Europe, the European Parliament, OECD and other European and international organisations concerned

The creation of an assessment and monitoring mechanism specially designed to guide parliamentary work is a key element if political responsibility is to be exercised with regard to population issues. At international level, it will be used to assess the cohesion of development work undertaken by the different parties involved (parliaments, governments, NGOs, etc.) and the sustainable development principles and objectives promoted by the Council of Europe. At European level, this mechanism will primarily be used to gain a better understanding of the situation of European countries, and particularly of countries in transition to a market economy, for which data are lacking. The Council of Europe needs reliable information so that it can lend its support to appropriate reforms.

In the case of European countries in transition to a market economy, the Council of Europe should (1) support socio-demographic research into demographic characteristics and individual aspirations as related to elements of population policies. The Council should also (2) support programmes designed to align social and economic policies with the legitimate aspirations of individuals, within the limits of national and international collective responsibility. Finally, in view of the worrying situation prevailing in some countries in the transition process in central and eastern Europe, the Council of Europe should (3) draw the attention of governments and parliamentarians to the necessity of

improving health and family planning services and environmental conditions.

3. Setting up a charter, declaration or convention on the demographic rights of individuals

Within the general framework of human rights, those rights directly related to the so-called demographic events in the life of each individual — birth and/or giving birth, migration and death — should be reinforced. To this end, the Council of Europe should (1) draft a text laying down ethical foundations and fundamental principles defining and governing the application of demographic rights and (2) monitor its application.

Drafting this text will entail a process of clarifying the concepts, principles and objectives inherent in a population policy which reflects the challenges of the end of the twentieth century. This text must also enable the dimension of the European consensus in relation to the international consensus on this subject to be better understood, and make it easier to monitor their respective developments by identifying deficiencies where they emerge. In this context, particular attention should be given to the rights of women: the right to physical integrity, the exclusion of all forms of violence or coercion, the right to information, sex education and freedom of choice in reproductive matters.

4. Adopting specific measures for follow-up to the International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo, 5-13 September 1994)

Using the final document of this conference as a basis, the Council of Europe should adopt specific measures on matters directly related to its terms of reference and concerns regarding aid for European countries in transition and developing countries. The attention of governments, institutions, associations, organisations and the individuals concerned should be drawn to the fact that the Council of Europe attaches particular importance to implementation of these component parts of the United Nations action programme. At the same time, the Council of Europe should create a mechanism for monitoring and assessing implementation of these measures. This could be arranged within the framework of co-operation between the various European and international institutions as envisaged above (see proposal 2).

5. Reinforcing the Council of Europe's ability to integrate the impact of demographic development into its relations with other aspects of sustainable development

This report has demonstrated the extent to which demographic development reinforces changes in all areas of the lives of individuals, societies and the biosphere. With a view to creating synergy and integrating problems more effectively, the Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography must enter into a programme of close co-operation with the other Council of Europe committees and bodies concerned, particularly those dealing with health, women's rights, migration, family and social policies and the environment.

o o

Bibliography

Léon Tabah, "Les interrelations population-environnement-développement: état de la question et perspectives" (article in the process of publication).

Miroslav Macura, Mitchell Eggers and Tomas Frejka, "Demographic change and public policy in Europe" in Population, Family and Welfare: a comparative survey of European attitudes, H. Moors and R. Palomba Editors, Oxford University Press (in the process of publication).

Statistics and further information provided by:

—Un ited Nations Population Division;—

—Un ited Nations Population Fund;—

—Po pulation Unit of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe;—

—Un ited Nations Development Programme.AP

APPENDIX I

Medium-term global population estimates and projections:

population growth, medium variant: 1950-2025

Time interval

Source: United Nations Population Division. World population prospects: the 1992 revision (United Nations publication, forthcoming).

APPENDIX II

Figure 1

Medium-term global population estimates and projections:

total population size, three variants: 1950-2025

(millions)

Source: United Nations Population Division. World population prospects: the 1992 revision (United Nations Publication, forthcoming).

APPENDIX III

Population estimates and projections:

more developed and less developed countries,

total population size, medium variant: 1950-2025

(millions)

Source: United Nations Population Division. World population prospects: the 1992 revision (United Nations publication, forthcoming).

Population projections by region (medium variant)

The medium variant is considered the most likely.

Source: United Nations Population Division. Long-range world population projections, New York, 1992.

APPENDIX IV

Source: United Nations Population Division. World urbanisation prospects 1990.

APPENDIX V

Women's literacy and population growth

There is a close connection between education and fertility: the more education women have, the more likely they are to have small families.

Source: UNDP human development report 1990.

APPENDIX VI

Desired family size is declining

Source: Demographic and health surveys.

APPENDIX VII

Changing age structure of world population, 1990-2150

Note: Based on medium fertility projection

Source: United Nations Population Division. Long-range world population projections. Two centuries of population growth, 1950-2150 (United Nations, New York).

Reporting Committee: Committee on Migration, Refugees and Demography.

Budgetary implications for the Assembly: none.

Origin: Doc. 6647 and Reference No. 1800 of 30 September 1992.

Draft recommendation unanimously adopted by the committee on 16 May 1994.

Members of the committee: MM. Flückiger (Chairman), Cucó, Sir John Hunt (Vice-Chairmen), Mrs Aguiar, Mr Akselsen, Mrs Arnold, Mrs Astgeirsdottir (Alternate: Mr Björn Bjarnason), MM. Attard Montalto, Biefnot, Billing (Alternate: Mrs Saint Cyr), Böhm, Branger (Alternate: Dumont), Mrs Brasseur, MM. Brennan, Brito, Ehrmann, Eisma (Alternate: Mrs Baarveld-Schlaman), Fava (Alternate: Mesoraca), Foschi, Fuhrmann (Alternate: Mrs Hawlicek), Galanos (Alternate: Hadjidemetriou), Ghesquière, Golu, Gotzev, Mrs Hacklin, MM. De Hoop Scheffer, Iuliano, Iwinski, Kalus, Kapsis, Karcsay, Kiliç, Kiratlioglu (Alternate: Mimaroğlu), Lord Kirkhill (Alternate: Mr Atkinson), MM. Laanoja, Lupták, Mrs Mascher (Alternate: Mr Antretter), MM. Pastuszka, Pavlides, Mrs Robert, MM. Saudargas, Skolc (Alternate: Pahor), Stoilov, Ms Szelényi, Mr Trojan, Mrs Uusmann, Mr Vázquez (Alternate: Sainz Garcia).

N.B. The names of those members present at the meeting are printed in italics.

Secretaries to the committee: MM. Newman and Sich.

1 ¹Defined in 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development as "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs".